Entangling Alliances 869

in the Balkans (including much of the empire’s Christian population) but
now faced two new small but hostile states. Moreover, hundreds of thou­
sands of Muslim refugees fled Serbia, Bulgaria, and Bosnia and Herzegov­
ina, pouring into the diminished Ottoman territories. By 1879, about half of
the 1.5 million Muslims who had lived in Bulgaria were no longer there;
200,000 had died, and the others had taken refuge in Turkey.
In 1879, fearing Russian expansionism, Bismarck forged the Dual
Alliance, the cornerstone alliance between Germany and Austria-Hungary,
predicated on German support for Habsburg opposition to an expansion
of Russian interests in the Balkans. Although the details of the alliance
remained secret, its general outlines were well known. The alliance became
one of the central factors of European diplomacy for the next thirty­
five years. When Italy allied with Germany and Austria-Hungary in 1882,
the Triple Alliance was formed. Italy was not a great power, but it wanted
to be one. The Italian government also wanted support for its aggressive
imperial ambitions, which were directed toward the Mediterranean region,
particularly North Africa. There France stood in the way, having occupied
Tunisia in 1881 before the Italians could get there (see Chapter 21), and
Italy now sought support against France.
Germany’s alliance with Austria-Hungary made the Three Emperors’
League virtually meaningless. Germany and Austria-Hungary each agreed to
come to the aid of the other in
the event of a Russian attack.
Bismarck had intended Ger­
many’s alliance with Austria­
Hungary to force Russia to seek
better relations with Germany.
But it had the effect of driving
Russia further away. Moreover,
Austria-Hungary’s alliance with
Germany had the potential to
make instability in the Balkans a
threat to European peace by
putting Russia at odds not only
with Austria-Hungary, but with
Germany as well.

Germany Encircled: Russia and

France Ally

The last thing Bismarck wanted

was for his alliance with Austria­

Hungary to drive Russia and

France together. Such an even­

tuality might one day leave

In a caricature of the alliance system, Otto

von Bismarck is depicted as a puppet-master

controlling the emperors of Russia, Austria­

Hungary, and Germany.