2.6 Making Predictions
MAKING PREDICTIONS means projecting the outcome of a situation that leaders or
groups face or have faced in the past. Historians use their knowledge of past events
and the decisions that led up to them to predict the outcome of current situations.
Examining decisions and their alternatives will help you understand how events in
the past shaped the future.Understanding the Skill
STRATEGY: IDENTIFY DECISIONS. The following passage describes relations
between Cuba and the United States following Fidel Castro’s successful attempt to
overthrow former Cuban dictator Fulgencio Batista. The chart lists decisions that
affected U.S./Cuban relations, along with alternative decisions and predictions of
their possible outcomes.STRATEGY: MAKE A CHART.
APPLYING THE SKILL
MAKE A CHART like the one above. Turn to Chapter 21, page 615, and read
the first four paragraphs of the section “English Civil War.” Identify three
decisions of England’s King Charles I. Record them on your chart, along
with an alternative decision for each. Then predict a possible outcome for
each alternative decision.Section 2: Higher-Order Critical Thinking
To help you identify decisions,
look for words such as decide,
decision, and chose.Notice how one political deci-
sion often leads to another.Notice both positive and
negative decisions.3
2
1
U.S./Cuban Relations under Castro
During the 1950s, Cuban dictator Fidel Castro chose to nationalize the Cuban economy,
which resulted in the takeover of U.S.-owned sugar mills and refineries. U.S. President Eisenhower
responded by ordering an embargo on all trade with Cuba. As relations between the two countries
deteriorated, Cuba became more dependent on the USSR for economic and military aid. In 1960, the
CIA trained anti-Castro Cuban exiles to invade Cuba. Although they landed at Cuba’s Bay of Pigs,
the United States decided not to provide them with air support. Castro’s forces defeated the exiles,
which humiliated the United States.2
1
1
3
R14SKILLBUILDERHANDBOOK
Use a chart to record decisions.Suggest alternative decisions.Predict a possible outcome
for each alternative decision.6
5
4
Decisions
Castro nationalized
Cuban economy.The United States
placed an embargo on
trade with Cuba.CIA trained Cuban exiles,
who invaded Cuba.The United States did
not provide air support
for the invasion.Alternative Decisions
Castro did not nationalize
Cuban economy.The United States continued
to trade with Cuba.The CIA did not train exiles
to invade Cuba.The United States
provided air support to
the invaders.Prediction of Outcome
There was no United States
embargo of trade with Cuba.Cuba continued to depend
on the United States
economically.There was no invasion
of Cuba.The United States
successfully invaded Cuba.