The Economist - USA (2021-02-06)

26 The Americas The EconomistFebruary 6th 2021

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chenko say they ordered good treatment

for the hostages. In fact, says the ruling, the

orders were merely to keep them alive. Un-

der international law, commanders are re-

sponsible for preventing subordinates

from committing war crimes. The jep

charged them as if they personally had

committed the abuses.

The ruling is devastating for the farc,

now a political party. The peace deal guar-

antees it ten seats in Congress until 2026.

So far it has not had enough popular sup-

port to win any beyond that. In a congres-

sional election in 2018 it got just 0.5% of the

vote. Last month the party changed its

name to Comunes, or Common People’s

party, to distance itself from its violent his-

tory. One of its core commitments is to ful-

fil its part of the peace agreement.

The jep’s ruling will test that promise. If

the farc’s leaders deny the accusations the

jepwould have to conduct a long trial, de-

laying rulings on other crimes, says Juana

Acosta, a professor at the University of La

Sabana in Bogotá. Worse, that would un-

dermine reconciliation with the farc’s vic-

tims, which depends on the guerrillas re-

cognising the suffering they caused. A

denial would also give new heart to the

peace deal’s detractors, who have been dis-

orientated by the ruling, says Jorge Res-

trepo, an analyst.

If the farcleaders’ guilt is confirmed,

the jepwill face a difficult decision over

whether those in Congress can keep their

seats. A decision to let them remain in the

legislature would give new ammunition to

the jep’s critics and enrage many ordinary

Colombians. “The continuity in Congress

of those who are responsible for kidnap-

ping offends us all,” says Mr Restrepo. Yet

banning the farc’s leaders from congres-

sional seats would weaken a pillar of the

peace deal: the farc’s agreement to pursue

their political aims democratically rather

than by force.

In the next few months the jepwill is-

sue rulings on mid-level commanders who

had direct contact with hostages and on

child-recruitment by the farc. Perhaps lat-

er this year it will issue a finding on what

role the Colombian state played in the

“false-positives scandal”, in which soldiers

murdered thousands of civilians, claiming

that they were guerrillas killed in combat.

If that ruling is as crushing as the one on

hostages, former generals could be indict-

ed in the same way as Timochenko and his

fellow farc defendants. Such a finding

would change how Colombians view Mr

Uribe’s offensive against the guerrillas.

Now many believe it saved the country.

The jep’s future decisions could polar-

ise Colombians. Underlying the peace deal,

however, is the notion that only the truth

can heal the country and ensure that such

crimes never again occur. So far, the jephas

risen to the challenge of uncovering it. 7

W

hen ecuadoreans choose a new

president and legislature on Febru-

ary 7th, they will begin a busy political year

across Latin America. Chile, Haiti, Hondu-

ras, Peru and Nicaragua are due to hold na-

tional elections (see chart). Chile will elect

a constitutional assembly. Argentina, El

Salvador and Mexico will hold legislative

and regional votes.

They are a diverse bunch. Chile is a ma-

ture democracy. Ecuador and Peru are row-

dier ones and Haiti is dysfunctional. Nica-

ragua’s strongman, Daniel Ortega, has

stamped out democracy. Nayib Bukele may

be doing so in El Salvador. Chile and Peru

have managed their economies well. Ar-

gentina and Ecuador have recently de-

faulted on their debts.

Common factors cut across these dis-

tinctions. Corruption, inequality, poor

public services and price rises provoked

mass protests in 2019 and 2020 in Chile, Ec-

uador, Haiti and Peru. The pandemic qui-

eted the streets, but raised the stress. Econ-

omies contracted and poverty rose (see

Bello). Recovery is expected to be slow. Par-

ties are weak and discredited almost every-

where. Elections in Central America will

strain democracy. In South America,

though there are worries about Ecuador,

they will probably affirm it.

Who will take charge is more of a mys-

tery than usual. There is a plethora of presi-

dential candidates, a disturbing number of

whom have criminal records. Ecuador has

16 presidential aspirants; Peru has 17. In

Chile, where two people have alternated in

the presidency since 2006, the race is open.

Looming over Ecuador’s election is Ra-

fael Correa, the authoritarian left-wing

president from 2007 to 2017 who last year

was convicted in absentia of corruption.

He is making a second attempt to install a

puppet in the Carondelet Palace. Lenín Mo-

reno, the current occupant, disappointed

him by abandoning his populist economic

policies and pursuing corruption cases

against members of Mr Correa’s regime.

Now Mr Correa is backing Andrés Arauz, a

little-known economist who has said that

Mr Correa will be his main adviser. Mr

Arauz frightens business folk, for example

by questioning Ecuador’s use of the dollar

as its currency.

On the left Mr Arauz faces competition

from Yaku Pérez of Pachakutik, a party that

represents mainly indigenous Ecuador-

eans. The split helps Guillermo Lasso, a

conservative businessman who is making

his third run for the presidency. Though

likelier to continue economic reforms than

Mr Arauz, he too has bowed to Ecuado-

reans’ anti-austerity mood, promising to

raise the minimum wage to $500 a month

from $400.

Peruvians face greater uncertainty. The

current president, Francisco Sagasti, is the

fourth to hold the office since March 2018.

His three predecessors were forced out ei-

ther by scandals or by protests. Peru needs

stability, but the aspirants to succeed Mr

Sagasti (who is not running) seem unlikely

to provide it. The early leader is George For-

syth, a former football goalkeeper and one-

time mayor. He has made corruption his

main issue, but showed his inexperience

by proposing that graft cases be decided by

juries “like in the movies”, which would re-

quire an overhaul of the justice system.

Mr Forsyth’s 12% support leaves room

for rivals. Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of a

former president now serving a prison sen-

tence for human-rights crimes, has spent

time in jail while prosecutors investigated

corruption charges against her. Daniel Ur-

resti, a nationalist, is on trial for the mur-

der in 1988 of a journalist, Hugo Bustíos,

near an army base he commanded. Candi-

dates with less chequered pasts include Ve-

rónika Mendoza, the left’s standard-bearer,

and Hernando de Soto, an economist who

advocates strengthening property rights as

a way to reduce poverty.

Chile’s presidential field looks less col-

ourful. It is likely to narrow after primaries

in July. The front-runners are mayors of

districts of Santiago, the capital, on oppo-

site ends of the spectrum: Joaquín Lavín, of

LIMA, MEXICO CITY, QUITO AND SANTIAGO

A series of votes will test the strength

of the region’s democracies

Elections in Latin America

More midgets than

Mussolinis

The long trail

Selectedelections, 2021

Sources:AmericasSociety/CounciloftheAmericas;TheEconomist

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

First/general Presidential/gubernatorialrun-off

Chile Presidential, legislative, regional

Haiti Presidential, legislative

Honduras Presidential, legislative, local

Nicaragua Presidential, legislative

Mexico Legislative, gubernatorial, local

Peru Presidential, legislative

Chile Gubernatorial, local, constitutional

El Salvador Legislative, local midterms

Ecuador Presidential, legislative

Primaries