48 Middle East & Africa The EconomistFebruary 13th 2021
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vanfreemanrunsa 20-hectarerose
farmatthefootofMountKenyaright
bytheequator,wherethesoilisfertile
andthesunshinesalltheyearround.His
business,UhuruFlowers,exportsto
some 49 countries,includingChina,
NigeriaandpartsofeasternEurope.
Someofhisbudsreachtheshopwindow
withinfourdaysofbeingcut.
Thatfinelytunedbusinesscametoa
haltwhenthepandemicstruck.Celebra-
tionswerecancelled,floristsshutand
aeroplanesweregrounded.Uhuru
halvedworkers’hoursanddestroyed
1.2munsoldstems,abouta month’s
harvest.Supplychainshaveslowlybeen
rebuiltsincethen,andthe 350 staffare
backfull-time.NowMrFreeman,like
manyfarmers,isspeedingupproduc-
tion,hopingtorecouplastyear’slosses
withsalesonFebruary14th.“Valentine’s
Dayformostfarmsisa hugedeal,”he
says.“Everyoneisfeelingpositiveand
readytotakeadvantageofit.”
Aftertheinitialdisruption,countries
havereopenedtheirborders.Florists
havegoneonlineandKenya’sflowerin-
dustryhascomeuproses.Thesector
employedmorepeoplelastmonththan
beforecovid-19begantospread,according
toa surveyofproducersintheRiftValley
byKenya’scentralbank.Productionand
exportsareat90%and95%oftheirlevels
inFebruarylastyear,respectively.
Farmerssaydemandhasrecovered
surprisinglywell.Theglobaleconomy
mayhavewiltedandconsumersmaybe
penny-pinching,saysAnnaBarkeratthe
FairtradeFoundation,but“abunchof
flowersonthetabledoeswonderswhen
you’reinlockdown.”
ThatisgoodnewsforKenya’seconomy.
Theflowerindustryusuallycontributes
around1%ofgdpandisa sourceofforeign
exchange.It employsmorethan500,000
people,including100,000directlyin
farms.Debateaboutflowerfarmsonce
focusedonpoorconditionsforworkers,
whoareontheirfeetalldayandexposedto
allsortsofchemicals.Thefocusnowison
keepingtheseworkers,includinglotsof
unskilledwomen,injobs.
A bigproblemthathasn’tgoneawayis
transport.Fewerpassengerflightsthan
usualplythecrucialroutefromAfricainto
Europe.Andfreightcapacityhasfallenas
planeshavebeenredirectedtomoving
medicalequipmentaround.RichardFoxat
FlamingoHorticulture,a bigflowerpro-
ducerwithfarmsinTimau,reckonsthe
costofairfreighthasjumpedfrom$1.90to
almost$3perkilointhepastyear.
Suchdisruptionhashurtthesmaller
farmsa lotmore.Flamingo,whichpro-
cessesa mammoth780mstemseveryyear,
hasa long-termagreementwitha logistics
provider.Itssupplychainhasbarelybeen
disrupted.Butsmallerfarmsarebusy
negotiatingwithfreighters.Competition
forslotsonplanesisparticularlyfierce
aheadofthepeakseason,whichbegins
withValentine’sDayandextendstoMoth-
er’sDayweekslater.“Thebigguysalways
win,”sighsMrFreeman.
Flowerpower
Kenya’srose-tintedspectacle
TIMAU
Covid-19wiltedKenya’sfloralfarms.Nowtheyarebloomingagain
Little luxuries for lockdown lovers
A new government will now be appointed
that will be closer to Mr Tshisekedi.
Mr Tshisekedi’s ascent to the presiden-
cy, in rigged elections at the end of 2018,
was unexpected. For much of his adult life
he had lived in Belgium. He was given a
place on the ballot largely because of the
reputation of his late father, Étienne, a fire-
brand opposition leader who died in 2017.
Electoral tallies compiled by the Catholic
church suggested that Mr Tshisekedi came
second, with under 20% of the vote, well
behind Martin Fayulu, a charismatic anti-
corruption campaigner. Yet Mr Tshisekedi,
to the astonishment of many Congolese,
was declared the winner, seemingly as part
of a last-minute deal with the former presi-
dent. The quid pro quo, allegedly, was that
Mr Kabila kept control of much of the state.
Yet power has steadily flowed to Mr
Tshisekedi as he has appointed allies to key
posts. He appears to have routed Mr Kabila
more quickly and comprehensively than
almost anyone predicted. “We thought it
would be closer to 50/50,” says Manya
Riche, a Congolese political analyst. “This
totally surpassed that.”
Exactly how Mr Tshisekedi achieved
this is unclear. Supporters of Mr Kabila (or
at least those who did not swap sides) mut-
ter that bribery must have been involved.
There are whispers that some mps took
payouts of $7,000-15,000 to join the new
coalition. One leading mpwho changed
sides admits that although “money circu-
lated”, people were offered much more to
stay. Other mps may simply have been un-
nerved enough to change their allegiance
by Mr Tshisekedi’s threat to call new elec-
tions. He has also targeted allies of Mr Ka-
bila with an anti-corruption drive. Faced
with the chance of lucrative positions un-
der Mr Tshisekedi on the one hand, and
prosecution on the other, many opted to
migrate to the president’s greener pastures.
Mr Tshisekedi made big promises on
coming to office, including providing free
primary schooling, building infrastructure
and reforming the electoral system. Al-
most none of that has happened. Most
Congolese remain extremely poor. In a
park near the parliament, a group of men
playing backgammon with bottle tops say
that jobs remain scarce. “The poor in Congo
still suffer, while the rich continue to eat,”
complains Eric Kayado, a petrol vendor.
(“Eat”, in Congo, implies “embezzle”.)
Mr Tshisekedi has long argued that Mr
Kabila’s control of parliament was a pro-
blem. “The system of Mr Kabila was to
block [progress],” says Jacquemain Sha-
bani, an official in Mr Tshisekedi’s party,
the udps. Outside the party’s offices, a
crowd of his supporters argue that their
president has “chased away” Mr Kabila and
will now bring them the changes they hope
for. “Now he can work for the people,” says
Darcin Mukendi.
Yet a new majority may not make re-
form easier. The new government will not
necessarily be stable, notes Ms Riche. The
president’s new allies will be competing for
ministerial positions. Not every aisle-
crosser will stay loyal. The economy re-
mains weak and, for the moment, Mr Ka-
bila retains his grip on a large part of it.
Some fear that Mr Tshisekedi may end
up emulating Mr Kabila, whose final years
in office were characterised by grotesque
corruption and the suppression of dissent.
On coming to office Mr Tshisekedi released
political prisoners and promised freedom
of the press. Now he appears to be back-
tracking. On January 28th Human Rights
Watch, a watchdog, accused Mr Tshise-
kedi’s government of having arbitrarily de-
tained and prosecuted journalists and ac-
tivists. It is too early to conclude that the
new boss is the same as the old boss. But or-
dinary Congolese have cause to worry. 7