The Economist - USA (2021-02-13)

(Antfer) #1

50 Europe The Economist February 13th 2021


In southern Europe closures have been
less widespread. Spanish schools have
stayed open since the autumn, though
most high schools use some distance-
learning. Some 35,000-40,000 new teach-
ers and assistants have been hired to re-
duce class sizes. In Italy primary schooling
has not been interrupted. High schools,
shut in November, have reopened for most
classes. Both countries have struggled with
remote classrooms, thanks to dodgy inter-
net connections and a lack of computers
among poorer pupils.
Similar tech problems plague the conti-
nent’s poorer east. Nevertheless, the clo-
sures there have been stricter. In Poland
schools have been shut since late October;
schools for those aged up to eight reopened
on January 18th. A survey of Polish teachers
last summer found that most knew of pu-
pils who had not turned up since instruc-
tion went online. Romania’s schools were
shut almost continuously from March un-
til they reopened on February 8th, yet more
than a quarter of the country’s children are
not equipped for online education, accord-
ing to Save the Children, a charity. By Janu-
ary the government had distributed
around 250,000 tablets, but said 287,000
more students still needed one.
Many experts worry about the emotion-
al and developmental damage of lock-
downs. But the data are ambiguous. A sur-
vey of Dutch social workers last year found
that emotional neglect of the children they
were responsible for was much more com-
mon than in the same period in 2017. But
even though some children report less af-
fection from their families, others say they
are getting more, including a rise in hugs.
Others worry about working parents forced
to stay at home to care for children. About
150,000 Polish women have dropped out of
the labour force since last March, says Piotr
Lewandowski, an economist.
One issue has been what to do about Eu-
rope’s all-important national examin-
ations. Germany is pressing ahead with the
Abiturto ensure that this year’s graduates
get equal respect. Dutch high schools have
stayed open for students in their final year
before the eindexamen. In France, the
dreaded four-hour baccalauréat exams
have been cancelled, apart from bits the
country considers essential: French litera-
ture, the final oral exam and, of course, the
written exam in philosophy.
At least the gravity of the threat to edu-
cation has sunk in. Austria, Denmark and
the Netherlands reopened their primary
schools on February 8th; Romania reo-
pened primary and most high schools as
well. The question is what governments
will do if infection rates rise in the spring:
close schools again, or find other painful
measures (such as curfews or bans on
house visits) to compensate for keeping
children in class. 

France

The president’s dilemma


I


n february2016, just 14 months before
the most recent French presidential elec-
tion, not a single opinion poll of potential
candidatesbotheredtotestthenameEm-
manuelMacron.Weakpartyallegiances,
anti-establishment distrust,abold cam-
paign—anda generousdoseofluck—car-
riedtheelectoralnovicefromnowhereto
thepresidencyinrecordtime.AsFrance
nowturnsitsmindtothepresidentialcon-
test in 2022, all polls and predictions
thereforedeservecaution.Yetthecontours
of the next campaign are beginning to
emerge,andtheypresenta peculiarchal-
lengetoMrMacronashethinksaheadto
hisre-electionbid.
Twonewpollssuggestthat 2022 will
bringa repeatoftherun-offbetweenthe
centristMrMacronandthenationalistMa-
rineLePen.Buteachalsopointstoa far
tighterracethanin2017,whenMrMacron
beatMsLePensquarelyby66%to34%.
One poll reduces the sitting president’s
marginto 12 points.Theothergiveshiman
evennarrowervictoryof52%to48%.The
French, proneto malaise even in good
times,givelittlecredittotheirpresident
andarefeelinganxious:abouta possible
thirdlockdown,thespreadoflevariantan-
glais, thereliability(andnowtheavailabil-
ity) of vaccines, the well-being of the
young,andthelivelihoodsofallthosefur-

loughedchefsandwaiterswhosustainthe
Frenchartdevivre.
Apprehension,aswellasdiseasecon-
trol,hasbreda politicsofreassuranceand
caution.WhereasonceMrMacronstood in
anarmytentanddeclaredwaronthevirus,
covid-19’slongeffectonpoliticshasbeen
toemphasiseprotection.Hepromisedto
do “whatever itcosts” to save jobs and
lives.Hisgovernmentmaintainsa gener-
ousfurloughsystemformillionsofem-
ployees,aswellasloansandgrantstokeep
businessesafloat.Itisshieldingitssuper-
marketsfromforeignpredators,hasraised
healthworkers’ salaries andhasall but
shelveditscontroversialpensionreform.
A nightlynationalcurfewhasbeeninplace
sincemid-December.EvenFrance’sglacial
vaccineroll-outisjustifiedasa measure to
buildtrustina vaccine-scepticalcountry;
Britain’sapproach,saida minister,carries
“enormousrisks”.
Suchprudencemaybejustifiedbythe
pandemic,andinmanywaysmatchesthe
new global orthodoxy. Yet the broader
messagealsoworksagainstMrMacron’s
reflexes,andwhathestoodforduringhis
bidforthepresidencyin2017.Thecandi-
date’scampaignthenwasbasedonanat-
temptbothtofreeupinitiativeandrisk-
taking,andtobuildamodernsystemof
rulesandprotectionstoencouragethis to
happen.Mr Macron’sdefiant,disruptive
side—reforms to the labour market,
schools,training,therailwaysandtaxes—
markedhisinitialyearsinoffice.Covid-19
iscrushingthisflat.
“In alloursocieties thepandemicis
leadingustoprotectmore;that’snormal,”
MrMacrontoldTheEconomistata recent

PARIS
The pandemic favours the politics of caution over risk

Not bad, considering
France, confidence in presidents, % responding

Source:Kantar

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
4542363024181261
Monthssincestartofterm

Nicolas Sarkozy

François Hollande

Emmanuel
Macron

Quoi faire?
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