19E DUC AT ION
How to fi nd
your collegeIn Ron Lieber’s new book,
The Price You Pay for
College: An Entirely New
Road Map for the Biggest
Financial Decision Your
Family Will Ever Make, the
New York Times columnist
peels off the layers of
needless complexity baked
in to the higher-education
system. His takeaway:
once students determine
what they value in a college
education, they’ll likely fi nd
an affordable option.
If mentorship is
important, for example,
fi nd a school that subsidizes
professors for hosting
student meals. If your child
is interested in independent
study, look for a place that
prioritizes such work.
These schools are
out there. And in order to
goose enrollment, many
offer generous merit-aid
packages. So Lieber
suggests having an honest
conversation with your
child, soon after eighth-
grade graduation, about
the stakes. “I have every
sympathy for adolescent
psychologists that are all
up in my mentions and my
inbox telling me to knock it
off,” Lieber tells TIME. “But
I do not think it’s appropriate
to hide the truth from
teenagers about matters
of six-fi gure importance.”
—Sean GregoryHOW LONG CAN
Andrés Manuel López
Obrador defy gravity?
The list of his coun-
try’s problems is long.
Though Mexico’s
President promised
to combat violent crime upon taking of-
fi ce in 2018, drug cartels still control big
pieces of Mexico’s territory, and homicide
rates remain at historic highs. The econ-
omy was underperforming even before
the pandemic. The veteran leftist’s drive
to centralize economic decision making
has angered local business leaders and
discouraged foreign investment.
The more immediate problem is that
Mexico now has the third highest number
of corona virus deaths in the
world. COVID-19 has killed
more people in Mexico than
in India—a country with
10 times the population—a
problem compounded by a
severely stressed health care
system and made worse by
López Obrador’s refusal
to take the virus seriously.
Mexico’s President has fl atly
refused to wear a mask, and he’s actively
encouraged Mexicans to protect jobs by
eating in restaurants.
Recent polls show that Mexicans are
not happy with their government. Ac-
cording to El Financiero, 55% have a nega-
tive view of the administration’s handling
of public security and 47% disapprove
of its economic performance. Yet half-
way through his single six-year term—
Mexico’s Presidents are term-limited—
López Obrador remains much more
popular than the government he leads,
with his approval at a robust 62%.
In part it’s because Mexicans continue
to blame the country’s other three major
parties—the PAN, the PRI and the PRD—
not only for creating Mexico’s problems
but also for the endemic political corrup-
tion that makes them so hard to solve. Nor
can we ignore López Obrador’s remark-
able popular touch. When, like Donald
Trump and Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, he
became infected with COVID, he argued
that he could have used his position to be
vaccinated fi rst and that he contracted
the virus, like so many of his people, by
showing up for work. In the process, he
reminded millions of Mexicans why they
love him and continue to distrust his ri-
vals. Some 57% say he’s honest. He’s dem-
onstrated that a populist of the left can
build a durable political base in this mo-
ment just like populists of the right.HOW LONG CAN LÓPEZ OBRADOR defy
political gravity? That will depend on
how quickly vaccinations can ease Mex-
ico’s COVID crisis. Its economy can’t af-
ford the costs of an extended lockdown,
and López Obrador has refused to pro-
vide the stimulus and added
safety-net protections to help
citizens survive one. Mexico
has run short on vaccines, but
new supplies of Astra Zeneca
jabs started to arrive from
India, and the government
has announced deals to secure
millions of doses more. But
can Mexico’s health care sys-
tem vaccinate enough of the
country’s 128 million people before viral
variants create new problems?
If not, the health and economic toll
may start to weigh on López Obrador
on the eve of crucial midterm elections.
On June 6, every seat in Mexico’s lower
house will be up for grabs and 15 of its 32
states will elect governors. Nearly 2,000
local governments will be elected across
30 states. The results of this vote will de-
termine whether López Obrador can ac-
complish anything in his remaining three
years. For now, his Morena party and
its allies control the lower-house super-
majority needed to amend Mexico’s con-
stitution. That political power is likely
to be lost.
In short, López Obrador faces the
same question now looming over just
about every other leader in the world:
Can he tame COVID and revive his coun-
try’s economy before voters send him
crashing back to earth? □THE RISK REPORT
Problems pile up
for Mexico’s President
By Ian Bremmer
He’s
demonstrated
that a populist
of the left
can build
a durable
political base