M34 BARRON’S March1,2021
Market Laboratory
MONEYRATES
Latest Prev. YrAgo
Week WeekDiscountRate(NY) 0.25 0.25 2.25
PrimeRate(base) 3.25 3.25 4.75
FedFundsRate
Avg effective offer 0.07 0.07 1.59
Avg weekly auction-c 0.08 0.08 1.59
T-BillsRate
13 weeks, Coupon Yield 0.030 0.041 1.536
13 weeks, Auction Rate 0.030 0.040 1.505
26 weeks, Coupon Yield 0.046 0.061 1.475
26 weeks, Auction Rate 0.045 0.060 1.440
Avg weekly auction-c 0.04 0.05 1.55
BrokerCallRate 2.00 2.00 3.50
BankersAcceptances
1 month 0.12 0.12 1.60
2 months 0.13 0.13 1.60
3 months 0.15 0.15 1.60
6 months 0.20 0.20 1.58EuroLiborRate
1 month -0.579 -0.578 -0.534
3 months -0.552 -0.550 -0.471
6 months -0.513 -0.529 -0.432
12 months -0.480 -0.493 -0.354LiborInterbankRate
1 month 0.12 0.12 1.52
3 months 0.19 0.18 1.46
6 months 0.20 0.20 1.40
12 months 0.28 0.29 1.38ForeignPrimeRates
Canada 2.45 2.45 3.95
Germany 0.00 0.00 0.00
Japan 1.475 1.475 1.475
Switzerland 0.00 0.00 0.50
Britain 0.10 0.10 0.75OtherMoneyRates
Fannie Mae Home Loan:
30-Year Fixed Conv 2.49 2.21 2.73Bank money market-z 0.08 0.08 0.21
Interest Checking-z 0.04 0.04 0.07
6-Month Certif-z 0.14 0.14 0.49
12-Month Certif-z 0.20 0.19 0.76
30 Month Accounts-z 0.21 0.19 0.79
5-Year Certificates-z 0.33 0.33 1.13
U.S. Savings EE Bonds:
Long-Term (5yrs+) 0.10 0.10 0.10c-Annualizedyields,adjustedforconstantmaturity,reportedby
theFederalReserveonaweeklyaveragebasis.
Sources:TullettPreboninformation,Ltd.
Factset.z-Bankrate.com.
1.10
0.95
0.80
0.65
0.50
0.35
4.90
4.00
3.10
2.20
1.30
0.40
S&P 100 CBOE
M A M J J A S O N D J FCBOE PUT/CALL RATIO vs S&P 100
Source:CBOEReadings in the CBOE equity put-call ratio of 60:100
and in the S&P 100 of 125:100 are considered bullish,
for instance. Bearish signals flash when the equity
put-call level reaches the vicinity of 30:100 and the
index ratio hits 75:100.S&P 100s
sCBOEFOREIGNEXCHANGE
FEDERALRESERVEDATABANK
Prev. YearMemberBank Latest Week AgoReserveChgs.(Mil.$) Week Change ChangeOneweekendedFeb24:U.S.Gov'tsecurities:
Bought outright 7,028,677 + 47,838 +3,182,111Federalagencysecur:
Bought outright 2,347 .... ....Reservebankcredit:
Primary Credit 2,031 + 264 + 2,029Secondary Credit .... .... ....Seasonal Credit .... .... ....Float -18 + 52 + 165
OtherF.R.Assets 30,350 -10,522 + 11,148
TotalFedCredit# 7,551,414 + 39,000 +3,431,923
Goldstock 11,041 .... ....
SDRCertif.Accounts 5,200 .... ....
Treas.Curr.Outst. 50,553 + 14 + 417
Total 7,640,177 + 39,006 +3,434,132
Currencyincirc 2,102,167 + 93 + 303,271
Treas.CashHldgs 79 + 7 -193
Treas.FedDeposits 1,529,977 -37,064 +1,090,612
ForeignFedDeposits 22,090 -212 + 16,903
OtherFedDeposits 311,145 + 90,462 + 241,532
OtherFRliab/cap 50,407 -2,843 + 5,911
Totalfactors 4,271,157 + 48,893 +1,691,581
ReservesF.R.banks 3,369,020 -9,887 +1,742,551
FgnholdU.S.debt 3,546,870 -2,864 + 86,545
ReserveAggr(Mil.$) Latest Prev.Month% YearMonthEnded January: Month Month Chg. AgoTotalReserves: 3,153,800 3,135,000 0.60 1,715,200
Nonborrowed Res 3,101,200 3,076,300 0.81 1,715,200Borrowed Reserves 52,591 58,685 -10.38 6MonetaryBase 5,248,000 5,206,600 0.80 3,442,600
SouthKorea(Won) .0008890 .0009041 1124.89 1106.06
SriLanka(Rupee) .0051 .0051 194.4400 195.5200
Sweden(Krona) .1185 .1208 8.4382 8.2767
Switzerland(Franc) 1.1006 1.1152 .9086 .8967
Taiwan(Dollar) .03587 .03581 27.880 27.926
Thailand(Baht) .03284 .03337 30.450 29.970
Turkey(New Lira)-d .1347 .1436 7.4246 6.9636
Ukraine(Hryvnia) .0357 .0358 28.0500 27.9500
U.K.(Pound) 1.3924 1.4012 .7182 .7137
Uruguay(Peso) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..
Financial .02316 .02339 43.175 42.755
----
Euro 1.2074 1.2119 .8283 .8251
SpecialDrawingRights(SDR)arebasedonexchangeratesfortheU.S.,
British,andJapanesecurrencies.Source:InternationalMonetaryFund.
a-RussianCentralBankrate.b-governmentrate.d-rebasedasofJan.1,
2005.y-floatingrate.Friday,February26,2021
TheNewYorkforeignexchangemid-rangeratesarequotedat5
p.m. Eastern time by Tullett Prebon. Retail transactions pro-
vide fewer units of foreign currency per dollar.
Foreign Foreign U.S.$in U.S.$in
Currency Currency Foreign Foreign
inU.S.$ inU.S.$ Currency Currency
Country Fri. LastFri. Fri. LastFri.Argentina(Peso)-y .0111 .0112 89.8154 89.0688
Australia(Dollar) .7707 .7870 1.2975 1.2706
Bahrain(Dinar) 2.6520 2.6521 .3771 .3771
Brazil(Real) .1786 .1858 5.5989 5.3825
Bulgaria(Lev) .6197 .6196 1.6137 1.6140
Canada(Dollar) .7850 .7925 1.2739 1.2618
Chile(Peso) .001381 .001411 723.90 708.70
China(Renminbi) .1544 .1542 6.4752 6.4869
Colombia(Peso) .0002742 .0002800 3647.00 3571.80
Croatia(Kuna) .1592686 .1600640 6.28 6.25
Czech.Rep.(Koruna) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..
Commercial rate .04613 .04681 21.679 21.361
Denmark(Krone) .1623 .1629 6.1596 6.1369
EcuadorUS Dollar 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000
Egypt(Pound)-y .0637 .0639 15.6966 15.6396
HongKong(Dollar) .1289 .1290 7.7562 7.7530
Hungary(Forint) .003333 .003381 300.06 295.77
Iceland(Krona) .007855 .007788 127.30 128.41
India(Rupee) .01353 .01378 73.937 72.556
Indonesia(Rupiah) .0000701 .0000711 14260 14065
Israel(Shekel) .3021 .3056 3.3100 3.2722
Japan(Yen) .009384 .009485 106.56 105.43
Kazakhstan(Tenge) .002395 .002395 417.62 417.47
Kuwait(Dinar) 3.3042 3.3059 .3026 .3025
Macau(Pataca) .1251 .1251 7.9950 7.9920
Malaysia(Ringgit)-b .2466 .2476 4.0545 4.0395
Mexico(Peso) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..
Floating rate .0479 .0489 20.8624 20.4342
NewZealand(Dollar) .7232 .7297 1.3827 1.3704
Norway(Krone) .1154 .1181 8.6648 8.4640
Oman(Rial) 2.5972 2.5976 .3850 .3850
Pakistan(Rupee) .00628 .00629 159.275 158.983
Philippines(Peso) .02056 .02062 48.631 48.489
Poland(Zloty) .2670 .2702 3.7455 3.7013
Qatar(Rial) .2746 .2746 3.6415 3.6418
Russia(Ruble)-a .01341 .01351 74.581 74.033
SaudiArabia(Riyal) .2666 .2666 3.7506 3.7506
Singapore(Dollar) .7507 .7552 1.3321 1.3241
SouthAfrica(Rand) .0661 .0681 15.1265 14.6915GOLD&SILVERPRICES
Year
Handy&Harman 2/26 2/19 AgoGold,troyounce 1742.85 1786.20 1609.85
Silver,troyounce 26.24 27.46 16.79
Baseforpricinggoldandsilvercontentsofshipmentsandfor
makingrefiningsettlement.
Price Premium Premium
Coins $ %Krugerrand 1800.03 69.23 4.00
MapleLeaf 1817.34 86.54 5.00
MexicanPeso 2094.83 8.00 0.38AustriaCrown 1699.53 3.00 0.18
AustriaPhil 1817.34 86.54 5.00U.S.Eagles 1817.34 86.54 5.00
Premiumistheamountoverthevalueofthegoldcontentinthe
coin.SourceManfra,Tordella&Brookes,Inc.
Bullionspotgoldprice1730.80BARRON'SGOLDMININGINDEX
12-Month Year Week%
High Low 2/25 2/18 Ago Chg.1019.26391.56 Gold mining 940.33 941.69559.45 –0.14
INVESTORSENTIMENTREADINGS
High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the
Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low
ones, market bottoms.
Last 2Weeks 3Weeks
Week Ago AgoConsensusIndex
Consensus Bullish Sentiment 70% 71% 71%
Source:ConsensusInc.,P.O.Box520526,Independence,Mo.
Historicaldataavailableat(816)[email protected]AAIIIndex
Bullish 45.9% 47.1% 45.5%
Bearish 23.8 25.4 26.3
Neutral 30.3 27.6 28.3
Source:AmericanAssociationofIndividualInvestors,
625N.MichiganAve.,Chicago,Ill.60611(312)280-0170.MarketVane
Bullish Consensus 49% 52% 53%
Source:MarketVane,P.O.Box90490,
Pasadena,CA91109(626)395-7436.TIMGroupMarketSentiment
Indicator 45.9% 47.5% 47.7%
Source:TIMGroup,3ColumbusCircle,Suite1592
NewYork,NY10019(844)[email protected]Last Prev. YrAgo
Week Week WeekWEEKLYBONDSTATISTICS
Last Prev. YrAgo
Week Week WeekNewOfferings,(mil$)(v)
Corporate (z) 23,381 r9,050 7,274
Municipal (z) 7,676 r5,872 15,261BestGradeBonds-y(Barron's index of 10 high-grade
corporate bonds.)
1.64 1.40 2.18
Interm-GradeBonds-y(Barron's index of 10
medium-grade corporate bonds.)
2.91 2.68 3.19
ConfidenceIndex(High-grade index divided by inter-
mediate-grade index; decline in latter vs. former generally
indicates rising confidence, pointing to higher stocks.)
56.3 52.3 68.3
OtherConfidenceIndicators:
BloombergBarclaysUSLongTreasury*(This
index measures the performance of fixed-rate, nominal US
Treasuries with at least 10 years to maturity. Jan. 1, 1973=100.)
4291.65 4298.60 4573.03
BloombergBarclaysUSCredit(This index
includes all publicly issued, fixed-rate, non-convertible, invest-
ment-grade, dollar-denominated, SEC-registered corporate
debt. All issues have at least one year to maturity and outstand-
ing par value of at least $250 million. Jan. 1, 1973=0.) (v)
3248.66 3318.31 3189.43
RyanLabsTreasuryIndex(Index of total return from
active Treasury notes and bonds. Dec. 31, 1996=100.)
311.58 318.47 316.33
BondBuyer20BondIndex
2.44 2.17 2.27
BondBuyerMunicipalBondIndex
3.55 3.43 3.38
Stock/BondYieldGap
+.28 +.48 +.38
YieldonDJEqualWeightUSCorpBondIdx:
Corp Bonds, (y) 2.32 2.12 2.52
v-WeekendedThursday.y-Yieldtomaturity,weekendedThursday.
z-Source:Refinitiv.*BarclaysT-BondIndexdiscontinuedbyfirm.Foreign Foreign U.S.$in U.S.$in
Currency Currency Foreign Foreign
inU.S.$ inU.S.$ Currency Currency
Country Fri. LastFri. Fri. LastFri.MONEYSUPPLY
MoneySupply(Bil.$) Latest Prev. Yr.AgoYOY%ChgWeekendedFebruary1
M1(notadjusted) r18,139.4r18,019.94,154.9 336.58
M2(notadjusted) r19,432.4r19,321.915,381.7 26.33
MonthendedJanuary
M1Mult.Replacement(St.LouisFed) r3.448 r3.449 1.150 199.83MonthlyMoneySupplyMonthendedJanuary
M1(seas.adjusted) r18,105.4r17,776.23,977.3 355.22
M2(seas.adjusted) r19,394.619,088.815,416.4 25.80GOLD PERFORMANCE
-40-20020406080M A M J J A S O N D JFBarron's Gold Mining Index (940.33)sHandy & Harman Gold PricesTarnished:Gold’s price tumbled 2.4%,
to $1,743 an ounce, as the dollar and
U.S. Treasury yields rose.
ARMSINDEX
TheArmsindex,alsoknownastheshorttermtradingindex,isanumber
derivedbydividingonequotientintoanotherquotient.Thenumeratorin
the index is the number of advancing stocks divided by the number of
declining stocks. As of 3/14/11, the denominator in the index is now the
compositevolumeofadvancingstocksdividedbythecompositevolumeof
decliningstocks.Daily 2/22 2/23 2/24 2/25 2/26NYSE .77 .69 .59 .83 2.22
NYSEAmerican 1.20 3.05 .30 3.87 .36
Nasdaq 1.02 1.32 .84 .69 .73The Fed will only be publishing Money Supply
once a month. Weekly seasonally adjusted
data is discontinued. Finally, due to a
methodology change, retroactive back to May
2020, M1 has increased significantly.