In March, TurkIsh
opposition candidate
Ekrem Imamoglu
defeated Binali
Yildirim, the
candidate of President
Recep Tayyip
Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party,
by about 13,000 votes to claim victory in
the race to become Istanbul’s mayor. The
exceptionally narrow margin in a city of
15 million people gave Erdogan cover to
demand an election rerun. On June 23,
Istanbul voted again, and Imamoglu
won again—this time by
about 800,000 votes. It was a
stunning rebuke for Erdogan,
himself once Istanbul’s mayor,
and a clear signal that many
in Turkey’s largest city are
fed up with the man who
has dominated the country
since 2003.
In the process, voters have
proved once again that while
Erdogan may continue to reach
for Putin-like powers, Turkey
is not Russia. It’s a legitimate
multiparty democracy
with genuinely contested
elections. After triggering the second vote,
the President campaigned vigorously
for his party’s candidate and used his
government’s tight grip on Turkey’s media
to ensure favorable coverage. Despite
that advantage, his demand for a do-over
transformed a loss by 0.16% of the vote
into a 9-percentage-point blowout.
Given that margin, Erdogan had little
choice except to publicly acknowledge
the result, but he’s unlikely to truly ac-
cept such a stinging political defeat.
Over many years in power, he has dem-
onstrated an instinct for responding to
political setbacks with a more emphatic
power grab. In this case, he’s likely to use
the courts to strip powers from Istanbul’s
mayor’s office and shift them to the cen-
tral government. With a weak economy
and contentious relations with the U.S.,
Erdogan is likely to double down on his
confrontational nationalist agenda.His greatest vulnerability comes from
Turkey’s feeble economy. During his first
years in power, Erdogan earned credit for
good economic times. Emboldened by this
success, his party promised in 2012 that
Turkey’s per capita income would climb
to $25,000 by 2023. The IMF estimates
that 2018 per capita income stood at about
$8,700. Turkey’s gap between rich and
poor is one of the widest in the world.Erdogan will facE two major poten-
tial challenges in coming months. First,
an emboldened opposition and an as-
sertive President may bring
large numbers of protesters
into the streets of Istanbul
and other Turkish cities, par-
ticularly if Erdogan is seen
as interfering with the city’s
government. In 2013, a dem-
onstration that began with a
few people protesting urban
over development led to an
Erdogan- ordered crackdown
that resulted in injuries and
deaths. Those Gezi Park pro-
tests became a national phe-
nomenon, involving as many
as 2.5 million people across
79 of the country’s 81 provinces. Six years
later, the conditions for a repeat of large-
scale unrest— urban residents infuriated
with an aggressive leader—remain.
Erdogan’s more immediate worry
comes from political challenges within his
own party. The election embarrassment
in Istanbul will encourage former Prime
Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and former
Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan to
establish new political parties of their
own, giving disillusioned supporters new
options. Thanks in part to support from
former President Abdullah Gul, Babacan
is the candidate most likely to draw votes
away from Erdogan.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan has proved
himself over 16 years in power to be
one of the world’s most resilient and
resourceful politicians, but now he is
about to be truly tested—and Turkey
with him. •THE RISK REPORT
Istanbul’s rebuke of Erdogan
shows that democracy lives
By Ian BremmerThe
conditions
for a repeat
of large-
scale unrest—
urban
residents
infuriated
with an
aggressive
leader—
remainS P ORT S
Let’s (not) go to
the videotape
When controversy over
video replay overshadows
soccer’s top tournament,
the beautiful game can
get ugly fast. That’s what’s
happening with VAR—
video assistant referee, or
soccer’s instant replay—at
the Women’s World Cup in
France. VAR’s World Cup
debut last summer, at the
men’s tournament, was
deemed a success: some
top men’s pro leagues were
already experimenting
with VAR, so the players
were familiar with it. FIFA,
however, did not approve
replay for the women’s
event until less than three
months before kickoff, so
the women couldn’t benefit
from advance preparation.
What’s more, a new rule
dictating how goalkeepers
stand before penalty shots
was instituted just days
before the Cup, and refs
have used replays to nitpick
its enforcement, going
against VAR’s stated intent
to correct “serious missed
incidents” and affecting the
outcome of games. One
coach accused FIFA of using
the women as “guinea pigs.”
The disastrous VAR rollout
is yet another example
of the inferior treatment
that women in global
soccer receive.
—Sean GregoryA ref signals for a video
ZHENG HUANSONG—XINHUA/SIPA USA review in a U.S.-Spain match