TheEconomistJune 29th 2019 451J
ustin trudeaureceived the kind of wel-
come in Washington, dc, on June 20th
that Canadian prime ministers dream of.
President Donald Trump, who a year ago
called him “dishonest” and “weak”, now sa-
luted him as a “friend” and treated him to
lunch at the White House. He promised to
help Canada in a diplomatic row with Chi-
na, provoked in December when Canada
arrested a prominent Chinese business-
woman to comply with an American extra-
dition request. Nancy Pelosi, the Demo-
cratic Speaker of America’s House of
Representatives, said she was optimistic
that Congress would eventually ratify a
deal, which includes Mexico, to replace the
North American Free Trade Agreement
(nafta), a Canadian priority. She gave Mr
Trudeau a basket of Californian wines, nuts
and chocolates. Those were his winnings
from their wager over the duel between the
Toronto Raptors and the Golden State War-
riors in a basketball championship. An aus-
picious rainbow appeared over Andrews
Air Force Base as Mr Trudeau’s motorcade
arrived for the flight home.
The omen may have been misleading.
On the day of his Washington visit, Cana-
da’s mps dispersed from Ottawa and hit the
barbecue circuit to begin the unofficial
campaign for the general election due in
October. In the opinion polls Mr Trudeau’s
Liberals have been trailing the opposition
Conservatives, led by Andrew Scheer, since
a controversy erupted in February over
what looked like an attempt by the govern-
ment to interfere with the justice system
(see chart on next page).
Canadians are not giving Mr Trudeau
credit for steadying relations with the Un-
ited States. They care more about matters at
home. The top issues in the election will behealth care, the economy, taxes, poverty
and climate change, predicts Darrell
Bricker of Ipsos, a polling firm. On issues
that affect household finances, voters trust
the Conservatives more, he says.
An additional challenge will come from
unfriendly provincial governments. Left-
leaning governments in Ontario, Quebec,
Alberta and New Brunswick, which were
sympathetic to Liberal spending policies
during the campaign in 2015, have been re-
placed by conservative ones intent on
thwarting them.
Those policies should be a Liberal
strength. Early on the Trudeau government
introduced a means-tested child benefit,
which has helped lift 300,000 children out
of poverty. The government also cut the in-
come-tax rate for the middle class and
raised it for Canadians with incomes of
more than C$212,000 ($162,000) a year.
Economic growth has been unspectacular
but steady, despite uncertainty caused by
the renegotiation of naftaand a drop in oil
prices in 2014, which walloped Alberta. The
unemployment rate of 5.4% is the lowest in
40 years. More than 1m new jobs have been
created since 2015.
Yet many voters do not believe these
cheery numbers. They are uneasy about job
security and the cost of housing, though
property prices in Toronto and Vancouver
have dipped from record highs. Social me-
dia fan these anxieties. A survey this yearCanada
Trudeau prepares for a grilling
OTTAWA
The prime minister is starting his election campaign from behind
The Americas
46 Colombiacutintwo
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