http://www.alsenosy.com | http://www.professionalengineers.us188.Answer:A.
PMBOK®Guide,pages 425 - 426 ,Section 11. 3. 2. 6 ;andFigure 11 - 10.
ProbabilityandImpact Matrix
DescribedinSection 11. 3. 2. 6 ,Prioritizationrulesmaybespecifiedbytheorganizationinadvanceof
theprojectandbeincludedinorganizationalprocessassets,ortheymaybetailoredtothespecific
project.
Opportunitiesandthreatsarerepresentedinacommonprobabilityandimpactmatrixusingpositive
definitionsofimpactforopportunitiesandnegativeimpactdefinitionsforthreats.Descriptiveterms
(suchasveryhigh,high,medium,low,andverylow)ornumericvaluescanbeusedforprobability
andimpact.Wherenumericvaluesareused,thesecanbemultipliedtogiveaprobability-impact
scoreforeachrisk,whichallowstherelativepriorityofindividualriskstobeevaluatedwithineach
prioritylevel.
AnexampleprobabilityandimpactmatrixispresentedinFigure 11 - 5 ,whichalsoshowsapossible
numericrisk-scoringscheme.
189.Answer:B.
PMBOK®Guide,pages 433 - 434 ,Section 11. 4. 2. 5 ;andFigure 11 - 14
SensitivityAnalysis
Sensitivityanalysis(alsocalledatornadodiagram)helpsdeterminewhichindividualprojectrisksor
other sourcesof uncertainty havethe most potential impact on project outcomes. Itcorrelate
variationsimpactonprojectoutcomes.Itcorrelatevariationsinprojectoutcomeswithvariationsin
elementsofthequantitativeriskanalysismodel.Oncetypicaldisplayofsensitivityanalysisisthe
tornadodiagram, which presents the calculated correlationcoefficient for eachelementof the
quantitativeriskanalysismodelthatcaninfluencetheprojectoutcome.Thiscanincludeindividual
projectrisks,projectactivitieswithhighdegreeofvariability,orspecificsourcesofambiguity.Items
are ordered by descending strength of correlation, giving the typical tornado appearance. An
exampletornadodiagramisshowninFigure 11 - 14.
- Answer: C.
PMBOK®Guide,page 432 ,Section 11. 4. 2. 4
Probabilitydistributions.Continuousprobabilitydistributions,whichareusedextensivelyinmodeling
andsimulation,representtheuncertaintyinvaluessuchasdurationsofscheduleactivitiesandcosts
ofprojectcomponents.Discretedistributionscanbeusedtorepresentuncertainevents,suchasthe
outcomeofatestorapossiblescenarioinadecisiontree.
Expectedmonetaryvalueanalysis.Expectedmonetaryvalue (EMV)analysisisastatistical concept
thatcalculatestheaverageoutcomewhenthefutureincludesscenariosthatmayormaynot