4.1 Inference 135
However, Doc 4 also reveals that the small
reduction in claims generally contrasts with a
massive increase in motor accident claims in
particular. If that rise is the result of an
increase in false and exaggerated claims, then
the public perception could be justified. A
good answer to the question will therefore
recognise that the evidence is inconclusive,
with some of the facts pointing in one
direction, some in another. This need not stop
you drawing a conclusion, but it should not be
too strong or overstated. If you inferred that
the majority were clearly correct in their
opinions, or completely wrong, without
acknowledging the room for doubts, your
conclusion would be unsafe.Summary
• When presented with a source of
information, whether in text form or
numerical or graphical, we often draw
conclusions / make inferences.
• A ‘safe’ (reliable, sound) inference is one
that has strong support from some or all
of the available data, and is not obviously
contradicted by other data.
• To be ‘safe’ an inference or conclusion
must be more than just plausible or
reasonable. It must follow from the data.4 Can it reliably be concluded from the
information in the three charts and Doc 4
that public perceptions about false or
exaggerated compensation claims are
seriously mistaken?Activity
Commentary
This is a more open question than the others,
and consequently there is more than one
direction that your discussion could have
taken, and more than one decision you could
have reached. What matters most is not which
answer you gave, but why you gave it; how you
interpreted the evidence. You could, for
example, have noted that there is something
of a contradiction between what the majority
think (Chart 1) and the official figures (Doc 4,
paragraphs 1 and 2). Those figures reveal that
the number of claims overall has ‘remained
relatively stable’, or even fallen slightly over
the period in question, with examples of
medical claims and work-accident claims both
being down. If the total number of claims has
fallen, it seems groundless to infer that the
number of false claims has risen. You might
also have added the point, already made in the
comments after Activity 3, that Chart 3 casts
some doubt on the belief that false claims are
soaring. Your answer could therefore have
been that the public perception is simply false.