Scientific American 201907

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July 2019, ScientificAmerican.com 7

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systems, such as the Diagnostic and Sta-
tistical Manual of Mental Disorders ( DSM ),
are used as intended—as general guides
rather than checkbox tools.
As a psychiatrist familiar with the DSM
but not compelled to use it, I used to be
annoyed whenever I saw it described as
“the psychiatrist’s bible.” On reflection,
though, that is quite a good description
because in practice, some psychiatrists
(chiefly in the U.S.) consult the DSM com-
monly, others ignore it completely and a
great majority draw on it selectively, fo-
cusing on the parts that make sense to
them and completely ignoring large sec-
tions that do not.
Brendan Kelly Trinity College Dublin


DECIDING WEATHER
Based on personal experience of the threat
of Hurricanes Florence and Michael,
Zeynep Tufekci argues in “Big Data and
Small Decisions” [The Intersection] that
when one is presented with a deluge of
data, even a simple binary choice (stay or
go, in her case) can be difficult. Unable to
make a data-driven decision, she notes that
she followed the advice of her neighbors.
Another way to frame this dilemma
would be through the decision-making
framework proposed by David Snowden,
formerly at IBM and now at Cognitive
Edge. Rather than ponder “What to do?”
he essentially suggested we ask, “What
kind of problem is this?”
Some well-structured problems are
complicated, with cause and effect reason-
ably clear, so decision-making may call
for experts who can sort through enor-
mous data sets (the domain of “good prac-
tice”). But problems where cause and ef-
fect are nonlinear and nonproportional
and where elements are volatile, uncer-
tain, complex and ambiguous (VUCA) are
in the domain of “emergence.” An example
is a hurricane scenario akin to Tufekci’s,
for which crowdsourcing via neighbors
who, it is hoped, have more knowledge
and practical wisdom of the area may be a
reasonable way to make the choice of stay-
ing or leaving.
Larry M. Starr Director, Doctor of
Management in Strategic Leadership
program and Doctor of Philosophy in
Complex Systems Leadership program,
Thomas Jefferson University
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