Scientific American 201907

July 2019, ScientificAmerican.com 7

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systems, such as the Diagnostic and Sta-
tistical Manual of Mental Disorders ( DSM ),
are used as intended—as general guides
rather than checkbox tools.
As a psychiatrist familiar with the DSM
but not compelled to use it, I used to be
annoyed whenever I saw it described as
“the psychiatrist’s bible.” On reflection,
though, that is quite a good description
because in practice, some psychiatrists
(chiefly in the U.S.) consult the DSM com-
monly, others ignore it completely and a
great majority draw on it selectively, fo-
cusing on the parts that make sense to
them and completely ignoring large sec-
tions that do not.
Brendan Kelly Trinity College Dublin

DECIDING WEATHER

Based on personal experience of the threat

of Hurricanes Florence and Michael,

Zeynep Tufekci argues in “Big Data and

Small Decisions” [The Intersection] that

when one is presented with a deluge of

data, even a simple binary choice (stay or

go, in her case) can be difficult. Unable to

make a data-driven decision, she notes that

she followed the advice of her neighbors.

Another way to frame this dilemma

would be through the decision-making

framework proposed by David Snowden,

formerly at IBM and now at Cognitive

Edge. Rather than ponder “What to do?”

he essentially suggested we ask, “What

kind of problem is this?”

Some well-structured problems are

complicated, with cause and effect reason-

ably clear, so decision-making may call

for experts who can sort through enor-

mous data sets (the domain of “good prac-

tice”). But problems where cause and ef-

fect are nonlinear and nonproportional

and where elements are volatile, uncer-

tain, complex and ambiguous (VUCA) are

in the domain of “emergence.” An example

is a hurricane scenario akin to Tufekci’s,

for which crowdsourcing via neighbors

who, it is hoped, have more knowledge

and practical wisdom of the area may be a

reasonable way to make the choice of stay-

ing or leaving.

Larry M. Starr Director, Doctor of

Management in Strategic Leadership

program and Doctor of Philosophy in

Complex Systems Leadership program,

Thomas Jefferson University