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more than half a dozen approaches to quantum computing. (See “7
Ways to Win the Quantum Race.”) It has produced promising early
results. In this nascent field, of course, it’s difficult to compare the
performance of one technology with another; scientists even dis-
agree about where to begin to do so. And it’s far too early to predict
which approach might become dominant.
For students of history, the transistor provides an instructive
metaphor. The device, invented in 1947, went on to become the
foundation for all modern computers, but few could have predicted
the extent of its significance at the time. When the transistor de-
buted, the New York Times covered it in a very brief article tucked
away on page 46. The front-running technologies in computing at
that time: vacuum tubes and relay circuits. And if you had been
picking winners back then, you might have ignored the transistor.
Dave Wineland, a Nobel Prize–winning scientist who coinvented
the ion-trap approach, frames the issue with a different metaphor.
“It’s like starting a marathon race. Maybe ion traps are in the lead,
but we can still look behind us and see the starting line.”
Growing numbers of corporations are
deciding they can’t wait five or 10 years for
a winner. Daimler Mercedes-Benz, which
has been partnering with both IBM and
Google on quantum research, is one such
believer. “There are certain simulations
and modelings that we cannot achieve with
current computing power,” says Ben Boeser,
innovation director for the company’s
North American R&D unit. Daimler hopes
to use quantum techniques for optimizing
transportation logistics and modeling the
chemistry of vehicle batteries. Such calcula-
tions remain out of reach for quantum
computers today, but Boeser’s team expects
the technology to get there in the coming
years. “We believe if we don’t jump in as an
industry giant, the technology partners may
not put their emphasis on those use cases,
and hence we would miss out.”
“People are ignoring these problems now
because we don’t have the machines to do
it,” Monroe says. Eventually, “people will
start thinking about these computations
more if there’s even a hint of advantage, and
that’s going to snowball.”Y
OU DON’T NEED a Ph.D. to take
these machines for a spin.
Since 2016, IBM has made two
quantum computers accessible
to the public via a website with a graphical
interface that looks like a musical score.
Scientists inside and outside the corporate
world are running experiments via similar
portals. They’re exploring approaches to
optimization problems, trying to figure out
what sorts of questions they can ask and
how they’ll frame those questions once the
technology is further along. In three years,
120,000 people have performed more than
10 million experiments and published more
than 190 research papers using IBM’s so-
called quantum cloud service.
During a mid-December visit to IBM’s
Yorktown Heights facility, the research
center’s staff showed off a time-lapsed heat
map of the world. The geography reveals
who has been dabbling on the computers.
Everywhere, enthusiasts are learning, cod-
ing, and experimenting. Except for an ap-
parent anomaly: On the heat map, China
remains surprisingly dark, despite its size,FINANCE Banking
and investing are
all about manag-
ing risk. Wall Street
behemoths such as
JPMorgan Chase and
Goldman Sachs hope
quantum comput-
ing can give them an
edge in the odds, al-
lowing them to better
manage threats and
opportunities related
to their portfolios.
Quantum computers
could also help fi-
nancial pros improve
their Monte Carlo
simulations, math-
ematical models
designed to predict
possible outcomes of
complicated decision
trees; they’re often
used to help custom-
ers figure out how
long their retirement
savings will last.ENERGY Quantum
computers could
help the world cope
with climate change,
one of the world’s
most complex and
hard-to-predict
phenomena. In
January, Exxon Mobil
partnered with IBM
to explore applica-
tions including
predictive environ-
mental modeling
and carbon-capture
technology. Daimler
Mercedes-Benz
is using quantum
computing to test
new types of battery
chemistry to improve
electric vehicles.
And the Dubai
Electricity and Water
Authority is working
with Microsoft to
optimize its energy
grid management.MEDICINE One day,
your health may de-
pend on a quantum
leap. Pharmaceuti-
cal giant Biogen
teamed up with
consultancy Ac-
centure and startup
1QBit on a quantum
computing experi-
ment in 2017 aimed
at molecular model-
ing, one of the more
complex disciplines
in medicine. The
goal: finding candi-
date drugs to treat
neurodegenerative
diseases. Microsoft
is collaborating
with Case Western
Reserve University
to improve the ac-
curacy of MRI ma-
chines, which help
detect cancer, using
so-called quantum-
inspired algorithms.PUTTING QUANTUM TO WORK
Businesses hope to apply quantum com-
puting to a range of complex issues; these
industries are particularly eager to jump in.