Sample Response with a Score of 6
The Borlarvia government proposes that fisherman give paid boat tours as a way
of ensuring their own livelihood while also preserving the porpoise. To support
this recommendation, the government explains that the porpoise has become
endangered due to overhunting, that fishermen have a high degree of knowledge
about the porpoise’s habitat, and that tourists have shown interest in the boat tours.
The government’s proposal also relies on the central assumption that boat tours, if
offered, would earn fisherman enough money to make a good living. To evaluate
whether the recommendation is likely to have its predicted result, we must examine
several questions pertaining this assumption of the government’s plan.
The first question that would need to be answered is: will the tourists pay for
boat tours? The government’s proposal mentioned that tourists have expressed
interest in the boat rides, but expressing interest does not necessarily equate to a
willingness to pay for the tours. If the tourists would compensate the tour guides
monetarily, then the plan might have a greater chance of succeeding. If it turns out,
however, that the tourists aren’t willing to pay for the tours and would only attend
them if they were free, then the government’s plan would not help fishermen earn
their living.
A second question to be asked, in addition to knowing whether tourists will
pay for the tours, is how much revenue is likely to be generated by the boat tours
consistently, on an annual basis? If the projected earnings are sufficient to replace
or exceed the fishermen’s normal earnings throughout the course of the year, then
the boat tour plan would be more likely to achieve its intended result. If the annual
revenue would be too low, on the other hand, or if perhaps tour income might be
too seasonal to cover what the fishermen would need to earn over a full year, then
the government’s plan would not provide enough income for the fisherman and
would be ineffective.
Along with investigating revenue-related questions, we must also ask about the
likely impact of weather and other external factors on the tours. If the weather in
Borlarvia is steady year-round, boat tours would be more likely to succeed. If the
weather is unpredictable, often rainy, or otherwise problematic, then the boat tour
plan would be less effective. Other external factors might also come into play, such
as the potential setbacks posed by economic downturns and the risks of water
pollution by Borlarvian manufacturing firms or petroleum companies. Economic
slow-downs tend to result in people spending less money on non-essential
expenses, meaning that fewer tourists would schedule boat rides, and business
revenue would diminish. Large-scale pollution could also prevent boat tours
during the waste clean-up process, reducing the overall income to the fisherman
and thwarting the plan’s success.
One final question regarding whether the fishermen could make a good living
giving boat tours concerns the fishermen themselves. Do Borlarvian fishermen
have the skills and the willingness to successfully conduct boat tours? Knowing
a great deal about the habitat of a species does not automatically translate into
making a person a good tour guide. Running a successful tour business requires
skills that the fisherman might not be accustomed to using on a daily basis, such
as dealing with the general public--including children--and managing safety
54 PART 1 ■ GETTING STARTED
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