New Scientist - USA (2019-06-22)

14 | New Scientist | 22 June 2019

News

Protective suits can

stop the spread of

Ebola via body fluids

AT LEAST half of all Ebola

outbreaks may go unrecognised,

and more surveillance is needed

to identify them. Those are the

conclusions of a new analysis

of data from the largest Ebola

outbreak in history.

The study has been published

amid the second-largest Ebola

outbreak in history, which is

currently affecting the Democratic

Republic of the Congo. Since that

outbreak began in August last

year, the virus has infected

about 2000 people, and caused

1400 deaths. Last week, a case

was confirmed across the border,

in Uganda.

Ebola starts with similar

symptoms to the flu – fever

and chills, muscle pain and

headache – but it often ends in

internal and external bleeding,

and death. The largest outbreak

killed more than 11,000 people in

West Africa between 2013 and 2016.

However, such epidemics

are relatively unlikely because

Ebola doesn’t necessarily spread

between many people each time

it “spills over” into the human

population from bats or other

animals. Emma Glennon at

the University of Cambridge

and her colleagues suspect

that, when it enters the

human population, Ebola often

dies out before it can grow

into a medical emergency.

To test the idea, Glennon’s

team used computer modelling

informed by data sets related to

the West Africa epidemic. After

taking into account the factors

that determine the likelihood

of the virus passing from person

to person, they estimated that

more than half of spillover

events go undetected, implying

that well over 100 outbreaks

of Ebola have never been picked

up by medical monitoring.

One of their models suggested

that the undetected spillover

figure might be as high as

83 per cent (PLoS Neglected

Tropical Diseases, doi.org/c7bq).

Single cases are likely to be the

most common outbreak size, but

only two countries have reported

these so far, they say. Ian Mackay

at the University of Queensland

in Australia says identifying

outbreaks early when only a few

people have been infected is vital,

because it is easier and cheaper

to contain them before dozens

of people have been infected.

He says the study also sheds

light on curious trends that

virologists have noticed in

the decades since Ebola was

discovered. “We have seen

studies come out over the years

from the 1980s onward showing

indications that some people have

antibodies [to the virus], but we

haven’t seen that to be a part of

ongoing outbreaks,” says Mackay.

This could be explained

by small outbreaks of Ebola

going unreported.

“If we’re seeing half or even

up to 80 per cent [of spillover

events] are missed, that might

contribute to these strange

antibody results,” Mackay says. ❚

Ebola going undetected

More than half of all outbreaks of the deadly virus are missed

Infectious diseases

Ruby Prosser Scully

RE
UT
ER
S/G

OR

AN
TO

MA

SE
VIC

MEET Irony Man. This

30-centimetre-high robot

combines nonchalant facial

expressions with deadpan

delivery in a way its inventors hope

will make it seem more natural. By

using irony in its dialogue, they say

it could be used to break bad news

gently and persuade people to do

things they otherwise wouldn’t do.

“Think of a robot in the role of a

lifestyle adviser that feels the user

should be more active and has

to convey this message without

appearing rude,” says Elisabeth

André at the University of Augsburg,

Germany, who worked on Irony Man.

The technology is based on a

computer program that analyses

the best response the robot could

make in a normal conversation. It

then flips words and adds emphasis

like overstatement to introduce

irony, that is to say, when the

intended meaning of a phrase

is opposite to the literal meaning.

So, in a conversation about the

weather, the phrase “I hate raining.

I usually have a bad mood when it

rains” becomes “Super! I utterly

love raining”, with elongated stress

on the word “utterly” and a smile.

In tests, a dozen students said

they preferred conversations with

Irony Man to those with a standard

robot. They rated it consistently

higher on qualities described as

likeable, appealing and motivating.

The work was presented at

the International Conference on

Autonomous Agents and Multiagent

Systems in Montreal.

The next step is to find a way

to make Irony Man bite its tongue.

“The robot is not yet able to

determine whether and when

there is a good moment to employ

irony,” André says. “It may happen

that the robot generates a funny

utterance, but the user is irritated.”

Imagine the possibilities: Great!

You put a totally expected item

in the bagging area. Eye roll. ❚

David Adam

A robot is using irony

and now people

like it more

Machine learning

Irony Man

doesn’t know

when ironic

quips are

inappropriate

HC

M-

LA

B,^ A

UG

SB

UR

G^ U

NIV

ERS

ITY

1400

people have died so far in the

current Ebola outbreak