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FORTUNE.COM // JUNE.1.19
A
S WITH ANY early-stage technol-
ogy that presages a revolution,
there’s always a risk that the
hype exceeds the hope. (See the
frequent periodicity of A.I. winters, when
advances in that technology have slowed
drastically, dampening enthusiasm along
with it.) Some scientists worry that invest-
ment will run dry once investors encounter
extended timelines and delays on the prod-
uct road map. “There’s a joke in quantum
computing that it’s always five years away,”
says Matthew Brisse, a Gartner analyst,
pointing to decade-old headlines that claim
a breakthrough is just around the corner.
If this time turns out to be different, it
may be because so many companies are
putting their shoulders to the wheel. “We’re
on the heels of a new industry forming,”
says SRI’s Broz. “I can imagine how people
felt in the ’50s, ’60s, and ’70s with the
semiconductor industry emerging.”
As for timelines, Jim Clarke, the head
of quantum hardware at Intel, draws an
analogy to both the mission to put a man on
the Moon and the development of modern
electronic computers. Sputnik flew in 1957;
Neil Armstrong touched down on the Moon
in 1969. The first transistor came about in
1947; the first integrated circuit arrived in- Such transformational leaps typically
take a little over a decade, and the quan-
tum computer will be no different, Clarke
forecasts.
“We’re not trying to meet some short-
term, flashy goal, but we’re trying to build
that rocket ship to the Moon,” he says. No-
body can quite agree on when the industry
will see liftoff, but this could be the year
scientists start the countdown.
influence, and interest in the technology. Here be dragons...
Dario Gil, the research center’s chief, acknowledges the paucity
of activity on the other side of the world. The Chinese have their
own government-spearheaded initiatives, and they are not working
with American corporations, at least not IBM, he says.
Gil’s remark is a reminder that the quantum competition is
not merely commercial—it’s also geopolitical. The first country
to build a fully functional, general-purpose quantum computer
may be able to pierce the encryption that protects Internet traf-
fic and secures all variety of data, an invaluable tool for spies.
Countries at the forefront of the technology may also be able to
eavesdrop-proof their communications, an obvious advantage in
a geo-rivalry.
The competition heated up in 2016, when Chinese scientists
blasted a satellite into low-earth orbit. Within a year, these sci-
entists used the spacecraft, nicknamed Micius after an ancient
Chinese philosopher, to successfully transmit so-called quantum
entangled particles more than a thousand kilometers between the
skies overhead and the Tibetan mountains on Earth. The world
marveled at the feat, and spines tingled: Had America lost its lead
in this contest so soon, just as it had once seemingly fallen behind
the Soviet Union in the space race?
China has activated a highly secure “quantum key” communica-
tions line, between Beijing and Shanghai. Since 2013, the Chinese
have published nearly 500 more papers than their American coun-
terparts on quantum science: 2,986 vs. 2,494, by Boston Consulting
Group’s count. Moreover, China’s government is said to be spending
$10 billion over the next five years on a national quantum program.
Anton Zeilinger, an Austrian physicist who taught Pan Jianwei,
the scientist who led the Micius expedition, tells Fortune that, with
respect to quantum communication, “it’s safe to say that China is
ahead of the game. And not just by a small increment.”
Back in the U.S., politicians have gotten the message. At the
end of 2018, just before a gridlock that resulted in the longest-
ever federal government shutdown, Congress, with near unanim-
ity, passed the National Quantum Initiative, a bill authorizing
more than $1 billion to kick-start an American national quantum
strategy. The initiative coordinates funding activities across major
research agencies. It’s as yet undecided how the money will be
spent, but the injection of federal funds is both a vote of confi-
dence in the technology and a powerful motivator for funding-
hungry research labs.
Many Americans disagree with the notion that China has the
edge, given the pioneering work of U.S. corporations, universities,
scientists, and startups. Kratsios, the U.S. chief technology officer
designate, says that other countries are pouring tremendous sums
of money into quantum science because they’re behind, “playing
catch-up.” Regardless of who’s currently leading, Joe Broz, a theo-
retical physicist who leads the advanced technology division at SRI
International, an influential laboratory group born out of Stanford
University, says the act will give the U.S. the ability to nurture the
nascent industry and prevent it from “escaping offshore to our detri-
ment, where it’s only to be sold back to us.”
QUANTUM COMPUTING BUSINESS BETS ON A QUANTUM LEAP
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JIM CL ARKE : Head of quantum hardware, Intel