196 Poverty and Hunger
though that may be. This farsightedness and the political courage of the govern-
ment of China deserve recognition.
In 1982, China’s population reached 1 billion, making it the first member of
an exclusive club. By 2017, its population is projected to reach 1.5 billion – equal
to the world’s entire population in 1900. Its demographic growth is then expected
to slow and its population to peak at 1.66 billion in 2045, after which it should
start to decline slowly. (See Figure 8.4.)^21
Looked at in terms of the last four decades and the next four, the magnitude
of China’s population growth becomes clear. From 1950 to 1990, China added
571 million people. From 1990 to 2030, it is projected to add 490 million more.
This anticipated addition reflects an impressive slowing in the rate of population
growth, but it is still nearly a half-billion people. Stated otherwise, during the next
four decades China will be adding an average of roughly 12 million people to the
world annually.^22
Many people think of Asia and Europe as having similar population densities,
but in reality Asia has many more people per hectare of grainland than Europe
does. The grainland per person in China today is roughly half that in France and
it is inherently less fertile. The other difference is that Europe’s population has
stopped growing. Now that the growth in grain use per person that accompanied
rising incomes has also come to an end, the demands made by the region’s popula-
tion on its land and water resources have stabilized. Europe is living well within its
food production capability or, in ecological terms, its food carrying capacity.
Indeed, it is producing a modest grain surplus.^23
In geographic area, China and the US are essentially the same size. The big
difference is that the western half of China is largely inhospitable to human habita-
Source: See endnote 21.
Figure 8.4 Population of China, 1950–94, with projections to 2050