he is not a radical who will rock the economic
boat which has given Spain sound growth (3.2
per cent annually) and halved unemployment to
a still high 11 per cent. He has also realigned
Spain more closely again with France and
Germany in the European Union. Spain in the
new millennium is a vibrant free democracy
attracting to its sunshine coasts millions of
tourists and much investment. The Franco years
are slipping into history.
Portugal joined the European Community at the
same time as Spain. But its transition to democracy
was far more traumatic. Antonio Salazar was
Europe’s most enduring dictator, ruling from
1932 to 1968, when a stroke incapacitated him
and the right-wing regime of Marcello Caetano
took control for six years. As dictators go, he was
relatively mild, imprisoning rather than executing
his opponents, and during the Second World War
he had actively assisted the Allied cause. After
1945, therefore, he remained in relatively good
standing, even though he had a secret police and a
card-index system concerning his opponents which
was borrowed from the Gestapo. In 1970 Salazar
died. The revolution that broke out in April 1974
was not democratic in intent but was organised
by army officers disillusioned with the wars in
Portugal’s African colonies of Mozambique and
Angola. It took a curious turn when radical army
groups entered an alliance with the communists.
A general election was held in April 1975 and the
Socialist Party gained most support; the commu-
nists lost out. Mario Soares became prime minister
until his replacement in 1979 by a centre–right
coalition. By then, democratic parliamentary rule
was firmly established – despite their great poverty,
the Portuguese people had not turned to the com-
munists. After the election of 1983, Soares again
headed a government coalition of Socialists and
the centre, which successfully implemented eco-
nomic reforms, making state enterprises more
efficient and encouraging the private sector; of tra-
ditional socialism there was little.
From having no elections, Portugal now had
too many. Party manoeuvres led to the fall of
Soares in 1985 and another general election. In
the following year, the country’s kaleidoscopic
politics required the election of a new president
and, after more party manoeuvrings, the office
was won by Soares, who thereupon resigned from
the leadership of the Socialist Party. The govern-
ment of Portugal after 1985 rested on the support
of the Social Democratic Party which, once it had
gained an overall majority in the election of 1987,
set itself the task of reversing socialist state control
of industry. Prime Minister Cavaço Silva ‘cohab-
ited’ amicably with the Socialist President Soares,
who was re-elected with an overwhelming major-
ity in January 1991. The following October
Cavaço Silva’s Social Democratic Party scored a
second electoral victory with an impressive overall
majority endorsing ‘cohabitation’.
During the 1980s Portugal made considerable
economic progress, as governments turned from
socialism to a market-oriented economy. All pre-
tence that Portugal was in a ‘transition to social-
ism’ and was committed to becoming ‘classless’
was dropped from the new constitution of 1989.
Its gross national product per head of $2,020 in
1978 had tripled by the early 1990s. Since the
mid-1980s Portugal had achieved a remarkable
degree of political stability and economic progress,
and was an enthusiastic member of the European
Community. Portugal suffered along with other
members of the EU from sluggish growth in its
closing years of the 1990s, inflation increased well
beyond the Monetary Union’s target and corrup-
tion scandals weakened Silva’s position. Intended
reforms of the over-large, protected and padded
administration remained to be undertaken.
After a decade in power the electorate was
looking for a change. Silva’s centre-right Social
Democratic Party was convincingly defeated in
1995 by the Socialist Party and Antonio Guterres
gained the premiership. His first four years in
office saw his popularity rise. Portugal was bene-
fiting from good economic growth and low
unemployment. Membership of the European
Union was proving of great benefit. In 1999,
despite fears that Portugal would not be able to
meet the conditions of the common currency,
Guterres was able to take Portugal in. This
marked the height of his popularity and in the
elections of 1999 the Socialist Party increased its
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