It is strange that at about the time of a new
century the world moves in a different direction,
not exactly in 1901 or 2001 but close to it. New
directions were charted in 1789, 1914 and then
twice in the last century, in 1945 and the mid-
1990s. As the twenty-first century unfolds, the
threat of great global wars over ideological and
power conflicts has passed and with it the danger
of a nuclear holocaust. Conflicts have not sud-
denly disappeared – far from it, but they are con-
tained and unlike 1914 or 1945 are not spreading
globally between the most powerful nations.
Bilateral wars will continue to break out espe-
cially on the African continent, but the inter-
national community has the means to end them if
it so wills. The loss of human lives will occur far
more through internal wars and ethnic hatreds
and if the international community does not step
in these can still cause hundreds of thousands of
deaths as in Rwanda. The ‘war’ on terror, the
so called ‘clash of civilisations’ is of an entirely
different order. Because the casualties are in the
West with death tolls in the tens or hundreds – the
Twin Towers so far uniquely in the thousands –
this ‘war’ attracts more attention than the hun-
dreds of thousands in the Sudan or the estimated
4 million over the past years in the Congo.
Disease, hunger and the lack of a tolerable human
environment in many parts of the world cause
continuous suffering and mortality. Compared
to the blood-soaked twentieth century no wars
between nations are being fought in Asia, the
Americas and Europe.
In the new millennium the downturn of the
world economy from its low point in 2001 has
been overcome. But the World Trade Organisa-
tions talks – the Doha round in September 2003 –
made no progress in liberalising trade further. The
rich and poor countries are at loggerheads. The
European Union and the US would not abandon
export subsidies of farm products, the most con-
tentious issue. Rich countries subsidise cotton,
crushing poor West African growers. The US
appeared to be determined to protect its cotton
farmers. The concessions by the US and EU were
too small to satisfy the poor countries. Then in the
spring of 2004 the EU offered major concessions
and the US promised to match them. Suddenly
prospects improved. Global freeing of trade is
being supplemented by regional and bilateral
deals.
The upturn in world trade in general has bene-
fited both rich and poor. The improvements of
two countries have pulled the rest of the world
forwards – the US and China. The possibility of a
recession in the US in 2000 and 2001 was avoided
by setting interest rates at the lowest point ever.
Consumer spending and housing allowed the
economy to grow by a modest percentage, but as
it is the biggest economy in the world even a small
percentage translates into a large absolute amount
of goods and services. George W. Bush has bene-
fited from the upturn. The good feeling at home,
and greater confidence in his firm leadership in the
fight against terrorist groups outweighed dissatis-
faction with developments in Iraq. Bush won theChapter 80
INTO THE NEW MILLENNIUM
THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY