8 Time July 19/July 26, 2021
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older buildings located on the ocean’s
edge out of concern that they may have
some of the same issues as Champlain
Towers, leaving owners to sell at a steep
discount or take their property off the
market. In the medium term, insurance
companies may decide to reprice their
policies for oceanside condos, raising
costs and likely decreasing value. In a re-
gion where much of the population—and
the tax base—is in close proximity to the
waterfront, this devaluation could have a
ripple effect, drying up public coffers in
a state where 30% of local- government
revenue comes from property taxes.
For years, experts have warned that
South Florida is vulnerable to a climate-
related real estate devaluation. Before
Brian Deese joined the Biden Admin-
istration as head of the National Eco-
nomic Council, he told TIME the region
faced the possibility of a housing shock
as awareness of climate risk grows.
“Physical risks are not being appropri-
ately priced in,” Deese said in January
- “The degree of capital realloca-
tion and the speed of that is going to be
larger and happen more quickly than
most market participants expect.” (The
White House did not respond to a re-
quest for comment.)
For now, the specter of oceanfront
homes disappearing underwater re-
mains distant. Condominium associa-
tions are reassuring residents that the
factors in their buildings “vary drasti-
cally” and that they should have “peace
of mind,” according to emails seen by
TIME. And as far as the market goes,
demand in Miami was so high that it
can survive a small dip following a one-
off event—if that’s what the Surfside di-
saster proves to be.
But the sudden wake-up call to the
tangible and deadly consequences of ig-
noring costly inspections, maintenance
and necessary repairs on the waterfront
will inevitably lead some to conclude
their Florida dream is simply not worth
it. “The fear is very real,” says Bozovic,
the real estate analyst. The older condo
buildings dotting the beach may be
hard hit in the short term, especially
those around the site of the collapse,
which she says new buyers will avoid.
“People died there. Who wants to look
at that? It’s very sad.”
Portland, Ore., food-cart co-owners
Eric and Nicole Gitenstein didn’t have
much choice about whether to open for
business during the unprecedented
recent heat waves plaguing the Pacific
Northwest. Excess heat from their
refrigerators and burners often raises
temperatures inside their cart 10 to 15
degrees higher than those outside. With
area temperatures peaking at 116°F
on June 28, working in such conditions
could well have put their lives in danger.
“It’s better to lose a weekend than to
lose your life, or be hospitalized for heat
exhaustion,” Eric Gitenstein says.
His fears were warranted: the
heat wave is believed to have been
responsible for more than 100 deaths
in Oregon alone as of July 7, officials say,
while more than 1,100 people across
Oregon and Washington State were hos-
pitalized with symptoms of overheating.
The record-breaking temperatures
have also exacted a serious economic
toll, with businesses across the region—
many still recovering from corona virus
shutdowns—closing their doors, many
to keep their employees safe. “It just
seemed incredibly unsafe to ask any-
body to work,” says Cathy Whims, owner
of Nostrana, an Italian restaurant in
Portland. “We couldn’t possibly do that
with any good conscience.”
As the planet continues to warm,
business losses across the U.S. are
also likely to mount. Up to 1.8 billion
workforce hours—or about 11 on-the-
clock hours per U.S. worker—could
be lost annually within the next three
decades because of extreme heat
caused by climate change, according to
research published in February in the
scientific journal Climatic Change.
Concerns surrounding extreme heat
as a worsening effect of climate change
are beginning to make the rounds in
Congress. In March, Democrats intro-
duced legislation in both chambers that
would direct the Occupational Safety and
Health Administration to set new rules
meant to protect workers from danger-
ously hot conditions, like mandating paid
cooldown breaks for employees workingECONOMY
Heat wave
offers preview
of climate
business lossesToo hot to handle: a business in
Portland, Ore., closed early on June in high temperatures. Those measures
are particularly important for agricultural
workers, who often spend long hours
working in extreme heat conditions. At
least one farmworker, Sebastian Fran-
cisco Perez, 38, was killed in the Pacific
Northwest’s heat wave. On June 29, the
United Farm Workers, an agricultural
union, urged Washington Governor
Jay Inslee to implement emergency
standards to protect workers from
excessive heat.
If the economic impacts of extreme
heat are a threat for the U.S., they may
be much worse in parts of the world
without the resources and institutions
to mitigate the growing problem. “In the
long run, rich places, as they get hotter,
will spend money to adapt,” says Bob
Kopp, director of the Rutgers Institute of
Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric Sciences.
“That option isn’t available to people in
much of the rest of the world.”
And even the best efforts may not
help the U.S. escape all the economic
consequences of extreme heat,
which could knock $170 billion off the
country’s GDP by 2100, according to
the Environmental Protection Agency.
For individuals, that could mean lower
paychecks and new medical bills; for
businesses, it’s lost revenue on top of
already thin margins. Eric Gitenstein,
for instance, says the days lost to
the heat wave badly hurt Portland’s
food carts, which have to make sales
during the crucial summer months in
order to get through the winter season.
“It’s one thing for this to be a random
occurrence,” Gitenstein says. “If this
is the norm, that’s going to destroy our
income.” —Alejandro de la Garza