14-Arbitrage Page 411 Wednesday, February 4, 2004 1:08 PM
EXHIBIT 14.2
Conditional Probabilities
411
PA
11
∩
A
,
{
+
(
,
10
)
P
12
}
(
,
∩
A
10
)
P
34
}
PA
21
,
{
+
PA
11
A
10
)
=
----------------------------------------
=
------------------------------------------
=
0.5
)
=
----------------------------------------
=
------------------------------------------
=
0.5
(
,
,
PA
21
(
,
A
10 ,
{
+++
PA
10
)
P
1234
}
PA
10
{
+++
(
,
)
P
1234
}
(
,^
(
,
10
)
P
1
PA
12
∩
A
,
{}
∩
A
10
)
P
2
PA
22
,
{}
(
,
PA
12
A
10
)
=
----------------------------------------
=
------------------------------------------
=
0.25
A
10
)
=
----------------------------------------
=
------------------------------------------
=
0.25
(
,
,
PA
22
(
,
,
{
+++
PA
10
)
P
1234
}
(
,
{
+++
PA
10
)
P
1234
}
(
,^
(
,
10
)
P
3
PA
32
∩
A
,
{}
∩
A
10
)
P
4
PA
42
,
{}
(
,
PA
32
A
10
)
=
----------------------------------------
=
------------------------------------------
=
0.25
)
=
----------------------------------------
=
------------------------------------------
=
0.25
(
,
,
PA
42
(
,
A
10 ,
{
+++
PA
10
)
P
1234
}
(
,
{
+++
PA
10
)
P
1234
}
(
,^
(
,
11
)
P
1
∩
A
21
)
P
∅
PA
12
∩
A
,
{}
0.25
PA
12
,
{}
(
,
PA
12
A
11
)
=
----------------------------------------
=
-----------------------
=
-----------
=
0.5
)
=
----------------------------------------
=
-----------------------
=
0
(
,
,
PA
12
(
,
A
21 ,
(
,
{
+
PA
11
)
P
12
}
0.5
{
+
(
,
)
P
12
}
PA
21
PA
22
∩
A
,
)
P
2
∩
A
21
)
P
∅
(
,
11
{}
0.25
PA
22
,
{}
(
,
PA
22
A
11
)
=
----------------------------------------
=
-----------------------
=
-----------
=
0.5
)
=
----------------------------------------
=
-----------------------
=
0
(
,
,
PA
22
(
,
A
21 ,
(
,
{
+
PA
11
)
P
12
}
0.5
{
+
(
,
)
P
12
}
PA
21
(
,
11
)
P
∅
PA
32
∩
A
,
{}
∩
A
21
)
P
3
PA
32
,
{}
(
,
PA
32
A
11
)
=
----------------------------------------
=
-----------------------
=
0
)
=
----------------------------------------
=
-----------------------
=
0.5
(
,
,
PA
32
(
,
A
21 ,
{
+
PA
11
)
P
12
}
(
,
{
+
PA
21
)
P
34
}
(
,^
(
,
11
)
P
∅
PA
42
∩
A
,
{}
∩
A
21
)
P
4
PA
42
,
{}
(
,
PA
42
A
11
)
=
----------------------------------------
=
-----------------------
=
0
)
=
----------------------------------------
=
-----------------------
=
0.5
(
,
,
PA
42
(
,
A
21 ,
{
+
PA
11
)
P
12
}
(
,
{
+
PA
21
)
P
34
}
(
,