A Climate for Change

(^130) Agriculture Human Development Report - Croatia 2008
Box 8-1: Expected impacts from climate change according to the National Communications to the UNFCCC
Regarding the potential impact of climate change
on the Croatian agricultural sector, the First Nation-
al Communication of the Republic of Croatia to the
UNFCCC concludes the following:^76

1. Soil moisture during summer months in low-
   land Croatia (the most fertile and most im-
   portant agricultural region) is expected to de-
   crease by 30-60%.


2. The annual number of days with temperatures
   exceeding 10ºC is expected to increase to 25-
   40 or 55-90 days.


3. The mountainous areas, which at present do
   not face water shortages, are expected to ex-
   perience shortages during August.


4. The vegetation period is expected to extend
   by 25 to 45 days.


5. The coastal region of Croatia is expected to
   have a decrease in soil moisture by 25-56%.


6. It will probably be possible to plant/seed
   spring crops earlier, and, depending on the
   water quantities available for irrigation, the
   growing season will be prolonged.

In the more recent document, the Second, Third

and Fourth National Communication of the Repub-

lic of Croatia to the UNFCCC^77 , climate change is ex-

pected to:

1. Have a positive impact on yields and crop qual-
   ity (notably winter crops) due to the extended
   vegetation period. The overall number of active
   vegetation days (temperature above 5°C) will
   increase by 35-84 days in the lowlands of Croa-
   tia and the period with temperatures above
   20°C will be prolonged by 45-73 days.VI
   2. Endanger spring crops because of high tem-
   peratures and water shortages during sum-
   mer months.
   3. Expand the area suitable for fruit and vine
   growing due to the disappearance of very
   cold winters and late spring frosts. This will
   particularly benefit southern Croatia, where it
   will probably be possible to grow more types
   of Mediterranean fruit.
   4. Result in unfavourable conditions for pests,
   resulting in a significant reduction in pesticide
   use. A warmer and drier climate is expected to
   reduce the outbreaks of natural infections by
   mycoses that depend on frequent precipita-
   tion and high air humidity.
   5. Result in more cost-effective production due
   to temperature rise, assuming that irrigation
   will be practised.
   6. Lower yields and quality of pasture, forage
   crops and cereals.
   7. Cause salinisation in coastal areas and im-
   poverish pastures due to high-intensity rain-
   fall and stronger winds in the coastal area.
   This is expected to have an adverse effect on
   milk production and the growth of small ru-
   minants. Also strong winds (bora), lasting for
   several days, in the Dinarides may kill weaker
   and undernourished sheep, goats and their
   young (already frequently happening during
   gale-force winds blowing at 80 km/h).
   8. Accelerate the multiplication of various patho-
   genic micro-organisms and parasites hazard-
   ous to livestock.
   VI This may be an important threshold for some crops, though
   it is unclear.