Human Development Report - Croatia 2008 Introduction - Climate Change and the Challenge for Human Development in Croatia^15Introduction - Climate Change and the Challenge for
Human Development in Croatia
Chapter 1
Climate change is one of the greatest challenges fac-
ing the world today. Its impacts can already be seen
across the globe. Croatia may already be facing im-
pacts from climate change and will inevitably see
those impacts in the future. The 2007/2008 Global Hu-
man Development Report (HDR) demonstrated that
climate change is happening and that actions must be
taken to reduce its impacts and reduce the extent of
that change.^1 Impacts from climate change – caused
by increasing levels of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in
the atmosphere – are expected to lead to a myriad of
problems that affect human development. Negative
impacts may include damages from more frequent
natural disasters and sea-level rise, strains on food
production, harm to human health, and many others.
If not addressed, climate change in Croatia can restrict
people’s choices, slow down and undermine develop-
ment gains, and have a negative impact on human
development in general.
The Global HDR calls for international action to ad-
dress both the mitigation of climate change and ad-
aptation to the impacts of climate change. This recom-
mendation is based on the fact that, even if emissions
of greenhouse gases were reduced drastically today,
emissions that have already been released would
still have an impact in the immediate future, because
most greenhouse gases stay in the atmosphere for
long periods of time. For example, in 30 years the envi-
ronment can only absorb half of the CO 2 contained in
the atmosphere.^2 In addition to the Global HDR, “The
Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change”
- hereinafter referred to as the “Stern Review”- repre-
sented a ground-breaking effort to quantify the glob-
al damages from climate change. It also estimated
the global costs for reducing risks by reducing GHG
emissions and implementing adaptation measures.^3
The Stern Review estimated that by the end of the
21 st century, with a temperature increase of 2-3°C, the
cost of climate change would be around a 0-3% loss of
global Gross Domestic Product (GDP). If temperatures
increase up to 5-6°C, which would be possible under
business as usual (BAU) scenarios, climate change
would result in a 5-10% loss in global GDP, with devel-
oping countries suffering costs in excess of 10%, even
when only market impacts, such as losses to agricul-
ture, energy use and forestry, were included. If non-
market impacts are included, such as environmental
and health damage, the estimates for damages are as
high as 11-14%.^4
To reduce the risks from climate change, emissions
must be significantly reduced – by 50% from 1990 lev-
els, by 2050 – and by beginning to adapt to existing
climate variability and future climate change. In a lat-
er publication, Stern^5 explains that, to reach this goal
given projected population growth, the current GHG
emissions per person will need to be reduced to two
tonnes. This target could be reached by having differ-
ent levels of reduction in developing and developed
countries. Developed countries would have to begin
drastic cuts immediately (20-40% by 2020 and 80%
by 2050). Developing countries would be allowed to
increase emissions slightly until 2020, but would then
need to cut emissions by half by 2050. Different coun-
tries would have different responsibilities based upon
their previous emissions as well as the potential for
reduction.
Looking beyond 2020, it is difficult to speculate about
the costs of reduction and what each country will
need to do to mitigate their emissions. However, a
significant global shift will be necessary to avoid dan-
gerous climate change. The estimated global cost
for reducing emissions to avoid dangerous climate
change is estimated at -1.0% to + 3.5% of global GDP- though the general estimate is 1%.^6 Achieving these
reductions will require a drastic shift in the way energy
is produced – shifting from fossil fuels to renewable
energy sources. Additionally, it would be necessary to
To reduce the
risks from
climate change,
emissions must
be significantly
reduced – by
50% from 1990
levels, by 2050 –
and by beginning
to adapt to
existing climate
variability and
future climate
change