A Climate for Change

Human Development Report - Croatia 2008 Introduction - Climate Change and the Challenge for Human Development in Croatia^17

other profound changes. It is currently on its way to
becoming an EU member state, which will bring op-
portunities and challenges for human development.
Croatia is ranked 46th in the Human Development
Index.^7 As such, it is among the upper tier of middle-
income countries. Croatia has many economic sectors
that could be very vulnerable to climate change. Its
agricultural sector has already shown significant vul-
nerability to climate variability in recent years, experi-
encing severe damages due to drought. Furthermore,
sectors such as fishing and mariculture, electricity pro-
duction from hydropower and tourism, are all linked

directly to climate. What could climate change im-

pacts mean for human development in Croatia? Will

there be positive impacts?

In addition to addressing impacts from climate change,

Croatia will have to reduce its own emissions as part of

the global effort to prevent disastrous climate change.

Croatia is not a major emitter of GHGs, with approxi-

mately 5 tonnes per person in 2004^9 (after including

land use changes) compared to an average of 11.

tonnes per person in 2004 amongst all Organisation

for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

countries.^10 However, its emissions are rising, and its

commitments under the Kyoto Protocol and its com-

mitments which will come with EU membership may

be a limiting factor in the future. The Government will

have to decide which path of emissions reductions it

will follow. Can/should Croatia be a part of the push to

reduce emissions drastically by at least 20% by 2020?

What would that cost Croatian citizens?

This National Human Development Report (NHDR)

takes the global discussion about climate change and

brings it to the local level. It is organized into three

sections to give an overall picture of climate change

issues and Croatia:

What do we know about the changing climate? - set-

ting the stage for priority-setting by evaluating pop-

ular perceptions of climate change and the level of

public interest in helping to address the problem. This

section also explores expected changes of climate in

Croatia in terms of changes in temperature, precipita-

tion and other factors.

What would climate change affect in Croatia? – as-

sessing the current and potential future vulnerability

of key Croatian economic sectors to climate change.

It also discusses potential positive impacts that may

result from climate change. This section also examines

the current ability to adapt to climate impacts as re-

lated to human development. There are recommen-

dations for adaptation measures that have other key

benefits regardless of climate change – “no regrets”

measures.

What can Croatia do to change the climate? – assess-

ing the costs of reducing emissions and the institu-

tional capacity of Croatia to mitigate its own effect on

Box 1-2: Climate variability, climate disasters,

climate change?

When discussing climate-related impacts in

Croatia, it is important to clarify what is meant

by the various terms used to describe them. Cli-

mate variability refers to changes in tempera-

ture or precipitation that depart from the aver-

age. Part of this variability may be due to normal

climate cycles and part may be attributable to

climate change - a departure from average tem-

peratures and precipitation patterns due to the

increased levels of GHGs in the atmosphere. Im-

pacts due to climate variability, such as droughts

or floods, are referred to in various reports as

climate shocks, climate extremes and climate

disasters. These terms do not refer to the actual

cause of the events.

However, the lack of a proven link between cli-

mate-related impacts and climate change is not

the central issue for human development in Cro-

atia. The UNDP Global HDR poses the question

as follows: “Is climate change implicated in the

increase in climate disasters? Direct attribution

is impossible. Every weather event is the product

of random forces and systemic factors.... How-

ever, climate change is creating systemic condi-

tions for more extreme weather events.... The

precise role of climate change in increasing the

number of people affected by climate disaster is

also open to debate. However, uncertainty does

not constitute a case for inaction.”^8