(^232) Conclusions: A Climate for Change – Findings and Recommendations Human Development Report - Croatia 2008
- Human health – especially among older people
- will experience increased risks due to heat
waves during the summer. However, mild win-
ter temperatures are likely to reduce the health
problems caused by cold weather. Addition-
ally, changes in allergen patterns may also cause
problems for certain groups.
- will experience increased risks due to heat
- Hydropower production may decrease due to
reduced river flow, and wetlands benefits may
be endangered due to less precipitation. - Agricultural production may experience a drop
in the yields of various crops.
The fisheries and mariculture industries should
benefit from the increased production of certain
types of fish and shellfish, although invasive spe-
cies and sea temperatures may reduce the num-
ber of other species. - Climate change will not affect all Croatians
equally. Certain groups in society face a greater risk
from future climate change. These include residents
of certain regions that face the double burden of low
incomes and employment in/ reliance on weather-
sensitive industries. They also include the elderly, who
face added health risks due to heat waves. Addition-
ally, poorer segments of society may find it difficult
to cope with rising commodity prices (including en-
ergy and food) because of limited income. For both
groups, climate change may be a threat multiplier,
making existing difficulties more severe. Groups at
greater risk will require special attention. - Looking towards 2020, many possibilities ex-
ist that will enable Croatia to reduce its emis-
sions. Preliminary analysis shows that Croatia
should be able to reduce its emissions beyond
the 1990 official baseline levels – perhaps by as
much as 30%. The costs for this reduction are es-
timated to be between approximately EUR 114.7
million and EUR 535.9 million for that year. This
is equivalent to 0.31%-1.43% of 2007’s GDP. They
include energy efficiency measures, sustainable
transportation policies, renewable energy poli-
cies, measures to encourage fugitive methane uti-
lization, introduction of more renewable energy
and changes in industrial production processes.
Furthermore, the potential for GHG “sinks” in Cro-
atia is quite large, though this reduction measure
may not be fully eligible for international negoti-
ations. Forest cover and carbon content increases
in soils could have a huge impact on emissions
reductions, though the costs and benefits need
to be further explored. In order to carry out these
measures, tremendous public, private sector,
and Government involvement will be necessary.
Potential, though more controversial, measures
also exist, such as the development of nuclear
power and the incineration of waste products for
energy. These have been identified as potentially
cost-effective but may not be feasible for reasons
of environmental sustainability and public resis-
tance. See Box 14-1 for more information on how
this analysis is related to the current Energy Strat-
egy in Croatia.