Human Development Report - Croatia 2008 The Croatian Climate^412080-2100
The results from a number of models were averaged in
order to estimate the potential changes in climate
statistics in various regions during various seasons for
2080-2100.IV It is important to note again that one model
and one emissions scenario is not enough to give a real
picture of what the Croatian climate will be like. Over-
all, according to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report,^1
annual average temperatures are expected to increase
between 1.9° and 6.1°C, depending on the emissions
scenario.V These numbers, however, do not indicate dif-
ferences in regions or differences in seasons. Because
Croatia is a small country with significant geographic and
therefore climatic differentiation, down-scaled regional
models are necessary to estimate changes in climate.
Having analysed these down-scaled models for vari-
ous regions in Croatia, Figure 3-6 and Figure 3-7 were
developed to present how future climate averages
might compare to current climate averages. However,
these studies do not represent a full range of emis-
sions scenarios, nor were they focused on Croatia.
Therefore, the future averages presented are for illus-
trative value only – they represent likely trends, but
the numbers themselves are not predictive.
According to these models, the temperature increase
will be the most noticeable in summer in the coastal
and mountainous areas. Winters will be milder and
summers will be hotter. Heat-waves will increase
in summer in terms of frequency and duration. An
increase in the frequency of other extreme events
(storms, cyclones, etc.) is also probable. Increased tem-
peratures are likely to drastically reduce snowfall and
it may possibly cease altogether in the lower altitudes.
IV The studies analysed include Coşkun, Demir, and Kiliç 2008, Bruci
2008, STARDEX 2005, PRUDENCE 2008, and MICE 2005.
V A1 emissions scenario: 2.2° to 5.1°C; A2 emissions scenario: 3.2° to
6.1°C; B1 scenario: 1.9°C to 3.8°C.Additionally, areas with snow accumulation will start
melting earlier in the year. Precipitation projections
suggest that, in terms of quantity, most rainfall will oc-
cur in winter. The driest parts of the country remain
the coastal zone and islands, followed by eastern con-
tinental Croatia. The wettest parts will be the farthest
north-western parts of Croatia (part of northern Istria,
Gorski Kotar and far western parts of central Croatia).
Overall annual precipitation will decrease.
The following suppositions are of particular impor-
tance:- The summer temperatures on the coast are ex-
pected to rise significantly. This could severely
impact the levels of comfort for tourists as well as
the water needs for agricultural services in those
regions. - Summer average temperatures in the Pannonian
Plain are also expected to rise. This could have a
detrimental impact on agricultural production
(See Chapter 8). - Winter average temperatures in the mountains
are expected to be above freezing, which may
have a significant impact on snow formation. - Precipitation levels are expected to drop signifi-
cantly, especially during the summer around Cro-
atia. This could have significant impacts on agri-
culture and hydro-electrical power production,.