A Climate for Change

(^44) Introduction - Climate Change and the Challenge for Human Development in Croatia Human Development Report - Croatia 2008
VI For more information on this event, go to http://meteo.hr/
SEECOF08/index.html.
3.4. Building capacity to predict
climate and to incorporate this
knowledge in decision-making
The predictions for the future climate are based on
global and regional climate models. However more
work is necessary so that this climate information can
become a useful resource for decision-makers, includ-
ing farmers, policy-makers, tourism investors, energy
system managers, etc. Several types of climate change
prediction would be useful for decision-makers and
should be incorporated into the decision-making pro-
cess, such as:

• Short-term forecasting – especially oriented to-
  wards extreme weather events,


• Seasonal forecasting – to help actors predict vari-
  ables for upcoming seasons, and


• Longer-term climate modelling – to help with es-
  timating climate change impacts.

Currently, the DHMZ is actively involved in sharing

information about short-term weather events – both

with specific users as well as the general public. This

weather forecast information is distributed through

many avenues to the public, decision-makers, disaster

management teams, etc. Ongoing inter-country co-

operation with other regional meteorological services

regarding data sharing also exists. However, as yet no

standardised warning system exists among countries

to provide warnings on current or future extreme

events. This means that, while there is fairly good in-

formation sharing, the warning system could be im-

proved among the different countries of the region

and within Croatia to successfully manage extreme

events.^2

Seasonal forecasting can also be helpful in predicting

climate variables for upcoming seasons. This could be

helpful in several sectors, especially agriculture. For

example, if the predictions are for drought or heat

waves at certain times of the season, there may be

more incentive to change management practices. The

science of seasonal forecasting is still evolving and

may not yet be completely reliable for management

decisions, but it could be extremely helpful in the near

future. The DHMZ is becoming more active in this pro-

cess, hosting the Southeastern European Regional

Climate Outlook Forum in June of 2008.VI This sort of

regional participation and increased communication

amongst hydrometeorological organizations can be

very helpful for increasing coordination amongst vari-

ous researchers.

In the more distant future, regional climate models

providing specific information on Croatia will be nec-

essary. While the DHMZ is developing such a model

(aided by funding from the World Bank), it is only ini-

tially planning to develop one scenario for one model.

While this is a good step forward, more models with

more emissions scenarios would be helpful to develop

a better picture of what the future climate is likely to

be. Since Croatia is a relatively small country, it could

share climate information with numerous other coun-

tries – such a Bosnia & Herzegovina, Slovenia, Serbia,

Montenegro and Albania (among others). Region-

ally downscaled models could be developed by each

country using different global models and using differ-

ent scenarios. This way, the coverage would be better,

and the amount of work (and cost) for each hydrome-

teorological office would be less. In practice, this may

already be occurring, but there seems to be no coor-

dination of data sets, variables that are examined, and

time periods analysed. A common agreement should

be reached between the different hydrometeorologi-

cal services to determine the responsibilities of each

office in this regard. As will be seen in the analysis of

vulnerability and adaptation in Section 2 of the Re-

port, this information is important for understanding

the economic impacts of climate change in Croatia.

While there

is fairly good

information

sharing, the

warning system

could be

improved among

the different

countries of

the region and

within Croatia

to successfully

manage extreme

events

In the more

distant future,

regional climate

models providing

specific

information on

Croatia will be

necessary