A Climate for Change

Human Development Report - Croatia 2008^49

that are able to project and analyse the impacts of
climate change. “Climate science” in general is a new
field that requires the development of analytical tools,
databases and the ability to combine them to conduct
integrated environmental-economic assessments of
climate change. It has taken scientists in North Amer-
ica and the EU more than 30 years to develop the ca-
pacity to conduct integrated assessments of climate
change that remain far from ideal and are continually
being refined. Given the political, social and economic
experience and the rapidly changing Governmental
priorities of Croatia since independence, it is not sur-
prising that the current level of Croatian climate sci-
ence needs development.

In this general context, the objectives of this section of
the Report are to:

1. Indicate the scale of potential climate change im-
   pacts and establish some very rough estimates for
   evaluating these impacts with existing informa-
   tion, including information on existing impacts
   from climate variability that may be partly due to
   climate change.


2. Give some indication of the current capacity to
   evaluate and adapt to the threats posed by climate
   change.


3. Outline recommendations for future institutional/
   policy/technical needs including potential adapta-
   tion measures.

To accomplish these objectives this section delves
more deeply into the current damages and future vul-
nerability due to climate in certain key sectors. It will

also evaluate Croatia’s capacity to project the physi-

cal impacts of climate change and place an economic

value on the damages caused by these impacts. The

section includes six sectors:

• Tourism


• Coastal resources – especially related to sea-level
  rise


• Health


• Fresh-water resources


• Agriculture


• Fisheries/ mariculture

These sectors were chosen based on three factors.

First, they are likely to be affected by climate change.

This is based on what we know about how the climate

is expected to change in Croatia and impact assess-

ments from other countries. Second, these sectors are

important to the Croatian economy and/or to human

development in Croatia (including vulnerable groups).

Finally, most of these sectors have some level of data

and analysis available to quantify the impacts of climate

change, to make an initial calculation about the eco-

nomic value of the damages caused by these impacts

(or some aspect of the economic value of the damag-

es), and to analyse the possible adaptation responses

to these impacts. It should be noted that issues related

to the climate impacts on biodiversity, while dealt with

superficially throughout the section, are not quantified.

Climate change will naturally have a significant impact

on biodiversity, which is an important resource in Croa-

tia. However, due to a lack of data to quantify this im-

pact, in terms of its effect on human development, it

was impossible to analyse this separately.

What Would Climate Change Affect in Croatia?