Human Development Report - Croatia 2008 Tourism^654.4. Assessing vulnerability and
adapting to climate change in
the tourism sector
As has been demonstrated, the tourism sector has a
significant impact on human development in Croatia
and is potentially vulnerable to climate change. The
probable effects on tourism resulting from climate
change need far more research and analysis.
4.4.1. Information availability for decision-
makers to assess vulnerability and adapt to
climate conditions and climate change
Both the public and private sector need more infor-
mation about the impacts of climate change, the
magnitude of the resultant economic losses, the op-
tions available to avoid or offset these losses and the
benefits and costs of undertaking them.
The first issue to be addressed – and this applies broad-
ly to all of the sectors – is the need to develop the ca-
pability to downscale global climate change models
to a finer grid scale, focused specifically on the region.
Once developed, these models will be used to make
climate projections of a much finer scale and to gener-
ate climate and weather data, such as the number of
rainy days, number of very hot days, etc. At the same
time, Croatia needs to be able to develop the capacity
to project how climate change will influence extreme
events, such as floods and droughts. Since the coastal
climate is quite different from the interior climate, this
is especially important in the tourism sector.
Currently, there is very little information about the im-
pacts of climate variability, either directly or indirectly,
on the behaviour of overseas tourists who visit Croa-
tia, or domestic tourists. As discussed earlier, the vaca-
tion destinations of foreign and domestic tourists will
be influenced by changes in climate both where they
live and where they choose to vacation. This includes
the effects of climate change on the environmental
characteristics of these places. Information about the
effects of climate change on the environmental at-
tractiveness of tourist sites requires new research. For
example, if runoff in Plitvice National Park is greatly
reduced, the numerous waterfalls may be reduced
to trickles of water and the pools beneath them may
become stagnant, making it an unlikely tourist desti-
nation, despite the attractiveness of the area’s other
characteristics.
More detailed and accurate information regarding
probable changes in climate, extreme events, and
changes in environmental characteristics resulting
from climate change is essential. Only then can re-
search be carried out to analyse how these changes
in climate will influence the choice of tourists’ travel
destinations, the impact of these choices on local ex-
penditures at tourist destinations and on the Croatian
economy as a whole. See Box 4-3 for more information
on the type of research that may be helpful.4.4.2. Resource availability for adaptation
and adaptation studies and the role of
institutions and decision-making authoritiesThe role that the Croatian National Government
will play in adapting to climate change is not clear.
Tourism is a market-driven activity propelled by the
decisions and economic circumstances of individual
tourists, most of whom do not even live in Croatia.
Therefore, it may appear that there is very little that
national and local governments can do to avoid the
possibility of tourism losses due to climate change in
coastal areas. However, this is somewhat misleading.
The impact of climate change on tourism is poten-
tially quite broad, but so is the mandate of the public
sector. Looking at how local and national govern-
ments are currently involved – directly and indirectly- in the tourism sector, will help to give us a better
idea of how the Government can be involved in fu-
ture adaptation to climate change. The Government
is already deeply involved in tourism, and Croatia
plays a leading role in global institutions focused
on tourism. For example, Croatia is the head of the
European Commission of the UN World Tourism Or-
ganization. The current tourism-related activities of
the public sector fall into six broad categories (Table
4-3).
More detailed
and accurate
information
regarding
probable
changes in
climate, extreme
events, and
changes in
environmental
characteristics
resulting from
climate change is
essential.