(^80) Coastal Zone and Sea-Level Rise Human Development Report - Croatia 2008
5.3.2. Total land flooded at different levels
and estimates of potential economic damage
As part of the preparation of this NHDR, the authors
analysed the amount and types of land which would
be covered by sea water, or would be at risk, given
two sea-level rise scenarios 50 cm and 88 cm. A 50
cm rise represents a high potential sea-level rise (de-
scribed by the IPCC in 2007^11 ), while 88 cm represents
the maximum amount predicted if the Greenland and
Antarctic ice sheets do not melt.III A simulation of 25
cm would have provided additional useful insight, but
without a more detailed digital elevation model, this
was not possible. As the IPCC provides no probability
for various levels of sea-level rise, choosing 50 cm and
88 cm represents a “mid-range scenario” and a “worst
case scenario” provided there is no significant melting
of the Greenland or Antarctic ice sheets.
An analysis of all the coastal counties shows that, with
sea-level rise at 50 cm, over 100 million square metres
of land will be covered, including urban areas, roads,
agricultural areas, forests, beaches, ports, among oth-
ers. At 88 cm, the area covered increases by another
12.4 million square metres (See Figure 5-6 and Table
5-3). However, the methodology used to obtain these
estimates has several limitations. The elevation model
used in the analysis has a horizontal resolution of 25
metres. This means that if the sea-level rises and con-
sequently the sea moves inland 12 metres, it would
not register in the analysis. In some places, such as
the Makarska Riviera, these hypothetical 12 metres
could be disastrous to the local economy in terms of
the beach area and shopping districts lost. Thus, the
estimates of land at risk from sea-level rise can be con-
sidered somewhat conservative. Nevertheless, these
estimates are still helpful for identifying the potential
trouble spots on the coast and for showing a sense of
scale for the potential economic damage.
As can be seen from Figure 5-6, perhaps the most vul-
nerable coastal resource may be fresh-water systems
and marshes. This is particularly the case with the Krka
Figure 5-5: Image of the land covered by sea-level rise of 0.50 m (light grey) and 0.88 m (dark grey) on the northern part
of Split. (Mesh means urban settlement)
Source: OIKON d.o.o.
III The analysis was carried out using GIS data by OIKON d.o.o. as
an in-kind contribution to the Report. The data for the analysis was
provided by the Republic of Croatia State Geodetic Administration
- A digital elevation model of the coastal counties.