A Climate for Change

(^88) Coastal Zone and Sea-Level Rise Human Development Report - Croatia 2008
5.5. Conclusions and
recommendations
The basic options available for coping with sea-level rise
are to protect vulnerable areas or to retreat from them.
Estimates of the expected rates of sea-level rise are very
uncertain. That coupled with the fact that sea-level rise
will probably occur very gradually means that there is
still time to develop the best methods for coping with
the problem, locality by locality. A mixture of near- and
long-term strategies involving both protection and re-
treat measures could be the best approach.
The role of the national and local governments in
adapting to sea-level rise is currently unclear and
needs to be defined. There are many laws and regu-
lations that address the protection and management
of Croatia’s coastal resources. However, the existing
body of law is largely a patchwork of legislation that is
sometimes inconsistent and lacks the specific norms
to address the management of the coastal areas in a
comprehensive and consistent manner.
Therefore, the first “no regrets” step for Croatia to take
in this area is to improve the institutional capacity of
Croatia to comprehensively plan and manage coastal
resources in a consistent manner. The second step is
for coastal planners, managers and developers in the
public and private sectors to take into account future
changes in sea levels in developing coastal land use
regulations, disaster risk management, and when
planning for major infrastructure projects – such as
sewerage – with planning horizons of 50 or even 100
years into the future. The next thing to do is to take
this a step further by actively developing the capacity
to formulate alternative policies, measures and proj-
ects for adapting to potential sea-level rise and assess-
ing the benefits and costs of these options on an on-
going basis, as better information becomes available.
Croatia will need to undertake more comprehensive
and detailed mapping of its coastlines, their physical
characteristics, land use patterns, and economic ac-
tivities to achieve this.
Croatia should co-operate with existing agencies, in-
stitutions and centres of research expertise that are
developing global and regional databases, as well
as models for forecasting sea-level rise, physical and
economic damages and the benefits and costs of al-
ternative adaptation options. Participating in the de-
velopment of these databases and tools will make it
possible for Croatia to better forecast the physical and
economic damages caused by sea-level rise and the
benefits and cost of avoiding these damages. This will
be essential to the development of a comprehensive
Croatian policy to adapt to sea-level rise, no matter
whether it is purely by facilitating private action, ac-
tively taking State action, or a mixture of the two.
Many valuable Croatian natural, historical and cultural
heritage sites lie close to the sea and, if sea-level rise
occurs to a great extent, these sites, once exposed to
flooding, could be lost forever unless protective mea-
sures are taken. At the same time, it is not physically
possible or economically feasible to protect the entire
coastline from the rising sea-level. Developing the in-
stitutional capacity to formulate and implement poli-
cies, measures, and projects to protect Croatia’s most
valuable coastal assets, supported by the capacity to
assess and compare all the benefits and costs of the
alternatives for adapting to sea-level rise, is the best
way to ensure that more is gained than lost to the ris-
ing waters.