Human Development Report - Croatia 2008 Health Impacts^916.1. Introduction
Climate change is very likely to have an impact on hu-
man health in Croatia. In fact, climate-related events
such as heat waves, which may increase in frequency
due to future climate change, have already had an im-
pact on the health of Croatians. Health was identified
as a major concern among respondents to the pub-
lic opinion poll discussed in Chapter 2. In that survey,
80% of Croatians, who believed that climate change
would have an impact on their lives, identified health
impacts as a concern. Health certainly deserves more
attention than this chapter provides. However, not
enough data exists in Croatia about the health im-
pacts of current climate variability or future climate
change to carry out a full assessment.
6.2. The impact of existing
climate variability and extreme
weather on health
Over the last decade, it has become apparent that
changes in climate can contribute to disease and pre-
mature death throughout the world. The distribution
and seasonal appearance of infectious diseases has
changed, and the frequency of some has increased.^1
Changes in immune system responses have occurred
with the altered seasonal distribution of some allergen-
ic pollen species.^2 More hot and sunny days may also
increase the impact of pollution in the future – especial-
ly by the increasing formation of ground-level ozone,
which harms the lungs and has been linked to asthma.I
Currently, ozone levels are not a large risk in Zagreb, the
most likely place to experience problems, though they
may be increasing.II Future climate changes, combined
with increased pollution, may further alter ozone levels
and their corresponding impacts.III Heat waves are con-
sidered responsible for an increasing number of deaths,
especially among the elderly and those with chronic
diseases. In Croatia, it is estimated that the August,
2003 heat wave caused 185 additional deaths, which
is a 4.3% increase in mortality.^3 The unexpectedly high
mortality rates at that time in the European Union have
partly been attributed to the lack of preparedness of
governments and health authorities.^46.3. Addressing climate
variability / climate change
impacts on healthThe health risks of climate change in Croatia are not
fully understood, but are likely to include cardiovascu-
lar risks from heat waves, increases in allergic reactions
resulting from changing pollen counts and distribution
periods, and increased heat stroke and other acute im-
pacts caused by hot weather. Indirect health risks may
also emerge from food insecurity and changes in the
water system (increased flood risk and microbiological
and chemical contamination) and related risks.^5 There
may also be impacts from increased vector-borne ill-
nesses carried by mosquitoes (e.g. malaria), birds (West
Nile fever) and other organisms; from water borne dis-
eases; and increased bacteria growth in food (e.g. Sal-
monella spp.). The tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) has
already migrated into parts of Croatia, leading to con-
cern about the possible spread of disease.^6 However,
it should also be noted that climate change may have
some positive effects in Croatia, including decreased
mortality during the winter months.^7 While both posi-
tive and negative impacts are likely to affect Croatians –
especially the elderly and those in areas dominated by
agriculture and aquaculture – they may also affect tour-
ists in Croatia, and thus the tourism sector as a whole.
To study the existing impacts of climate on human
health, the City of Zagreb and the Institute for Cardio-I Ground-level ozone is different from atmospheric ozone declines
due to chemical usage and thus destroying the “ozone layer.”
II See Pehnec et al. 2005 for data from around 1999-2001 which
showed no violations of permissible ozone thresholds, and Institute
for Medical Research and Occupational Health 2006, which reports
two violations of the permissible daily thresholds for ground-level
ozone levels.
III For the threshold levels for ground-level ozone, see GRC 2005.