However, this argument cannot be taken too far in general explanatory
terms, since the logic of it would be that there would be no end to military
intervention as it spread like wildfire from one state to another. Neither
Putnam for Latin America nor Wells for Africa found empirical evidence to
confirm the contagion hypothesis (Putnam, 1967, p. 102; Wells, 1974).
There are clearly effective barriers to contagion.
External influences also include the international context in which
domestic conflict and insecurity occur. When Third World countries were at
the periphery of the Cold War or at the centre of regional conflicts, the
strength and significance of the armed forces, concerned with both national
security and national pride, were enhanced and their motivation to intervene
strengthened (Luckham, 1991, p. 376).
The military and democratization
A major concern during democratization, especially after a period of military
rule, is how to ensure that the military remain loyal to civilian political lead-
ership. Experience of democratic transitions suggest a number of hypotheses
about the conditions necessary to restrict the power of the military during the
consolidation of democracy in order to establish civil–military relations
consistent with democratic government.
First, it is necessary to demobilize the military and reintegrate those not
needed by a professional army into society. This is particularly important
when armed insurgency has been part of the transition to democracy as
in Zimbabwe, South Africa and Mozambique (Griffiths, 1996). The chal-
lenge here is starkly revealed by the case of Afghanistan where some
700,000 people are estimated to be armed when a standing army needs
about 200,000 and when most militias owe allegiance to tribal warlords
rather than the state.
Secondly, civilian political control over the military must be institution-
alized by organizational changes. Professionalism in the armed forces has to
be strengthened by improvements to the management of military establish-
ments, and changes in senior military personnel. Political mechanisms
which hold the military accountable to civil control and establish civilian
control of defence policy need to be made more effective, such as by
strengthening parliamentary supervision, ensuring civilian control of
defence ministries, and giving legislatures authority to control defence
spending and endorse senior appointments in all the security services. The
military has also to be brought under the Rule of Law. An imbalance between
190 Understanding Third World Politics