reduce inequalities and increase the real value of wages, did popular protest
subside. Where the state responded with repression (Nicaragua, El Salvador
and Guatemala) ‘opposition mobilization and unity increased and led to a
broad, rebellious challenge to regime sovereignty’ (Booth, 1991).
The revolution of rising expectations
A period of rapid economic growth can be followed by an economic down-
turn. Then there may be a ‘revolution of rising expectations’ meaning that if
there is a set-back in prosperity after a period of rapidly rising economic
growth, frustration would be experienced by people whose expectations are
rising faster than can be satisfied by the economy. This frustration among
people who are denied the increase in the standard of living which they had
anticipated can be politically destabilizing, because of the ways in which
their frustration is likely to be expressed. Building upon Marx’s observation
that we measure our desires and pleasures by social comparison and not
by the objects that provide the satisfaction, and de Tocqueville’s conclusion
that ‘Evils which are patiently endured when they seem inevitable become
intolerable when once the idea of escape from them is suggested’, Davies
offers a largely psychological explanation of one particular kind of instabil-
ity which postulates that: ‘Revolutions are most likely to occur when a pro-
longed period of objective economic and social development is followed by
a short period of sharp reversal’ (Davies, 1972, pp. 136–7).
The reversal in economic circumstances produces anxiety and frustration
as an intolerable gap opens up between what people expect and what they
actually get. ‘Political stability and instability are ultimately dependent on a
state of mind, a mood, in a society ... it is the dissatisfied state of mind
rather than the tangible provision of “adequate” supplies of food, equality,
or liberty which produces the revolution’ (Davies, 1972, p. 137). Depri-
vation, it is argued, does not lead to revolution, but rather a sudden decline
in the opportunities to continue improving one’s condition in line with
expectations. A ‘revolutionary state of mind’ requires an expectation of
improvements in the satisfaction of needs (for physical, social and political
benefits) to be under ‘a persistent, unrelenting threat’. The ‘crucial factor’ is
the fear that ‘ground gained over a long period of time will be quickly lost’.
The relationship between expectationsof needs satisfaction and their actual
satisfaction can be demonstrated by a J curve (see Figure 10.1).
Davies claims that this theory fits not only the American, French and
Russian revolutions, but also the Egyptian revolution of 1952 after a series of
Instability and Revolution 229