THE ASIAN CRISIS AND ITS INTERNATIONAL REPERCUSSIONS/221crisis last? It is best to avoid random forecasts. Nevertheless, it looks
as if there will be zero and perhaps even negative growth in 1998.
The four 'dragon' countries' 350 million inhabitants have seen their
purchasing power come tumbling down. According to the World
Bank, by early 1998, 2.3 million Indonesians had lost their jobs
(International Herald Tribune, 12 January 1998). One million
Malaysians and 1.7 million Thais were in the same position. We are
in the early stages of large-scale social catastrophe.
BOX 7 CHRONOLOGY OF THE CRISIS
February 1997: capital flight from Thailand begins
2 July 199 7: first devaluation of Thai bhat
August 1997: IMF announces rescue package for Thailand. IMF
package accompanied by harsh austerity measures.Stock market performance: between January and August 1997,
stock markets continued to climb in the United States, Europe,
Hong Kong and Latin America. Japanese markets stagnated, and
in August 1997 markets in the four 'dragons' crashed.October 199 7: stock market crash in Hong Kong and a number of
other markets (the term 'crash' is usually used to describe a drop
in share values of more than 10 per cent in a single session).27 October 1997: generalised fall on world stock markets. New
York, down 7.2 per cent (554 points down). Trading stopped twice
on Wall Street. Sao Paolo, down 14.9 per cent; Mexico City, down
13.7 per cent; Buenos Aires, down 13.3 per cent; Toronto, down
6.1 per cent; Hong Kong, down 13.7 per cent (or 33.4 per cent in
eight days); Tokyo, down 4.3 per cent; London, down 8.4 per cent;
Frankfurt, down 11 per cent; Madrid, down 14 per cent;
Amsterdam, down 8.7 per cent; Paris, down 9.1 per cent; Brussels,
down 1.2 per cent; Manilla, down 6.3 per cent; Seoul, down
6.6 percent; Taipei, down 6.9 percent; Sydney, down 7.2 percent;
Shanghai, down 7.2 per cent; Auckland, down 12.5 per cent;
Moscow (October 28), down 21.1 percent.December 1997: South Korea accepts IMF conditions