Stocks for the Long Run : the Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns and Long-term Investment Strategies

CHAPTER 13 When World Events Impact Financial Markets 229

TABLE 13–2

Stock Returns during Presidential Administrations (Measured in Percent by S&P Total Returns Index;

Italics Represent Democratic Administrations)

President's Election From: 1 day before First Year Second Year Third Year Fourth Year

Name Date To: 1 day after of Term of Term of Term of Term

Harrison R 11/6/1888 0. 46 .9-6. 218. 76. 2

Cleveland D 11/8/1892 -0. 5 -19. 13. 25. 03. 0

McKinley R 11/3/1896 2. 720. 229. 13. 821. 2

McKinley R 11/6/1900 3. 319. 78. 3 -17. 431. 4

Roosevelt, T. R 11/8/1904 1. 321. 30. 8 -24. 538. 9

Taft R 11/3/1908 2. 416 .4-3. 63. 47. 3

Wilson D 11/5/1912 1 .8-5.1-5. 931. 18. 7

Wilson D 11/7/1916 -0. 4 -18. 517. 119. 6 -14. 3

Harding R 11/2/1920 -0. 69. 229. 65. 126. 6

Coolidge R 11/4/1924 1. 225. 711. 637. 543. 6

Hoover R 11/6/1928 1 .2-8. 4 -24. 9 -43.3-8. 2

Roosevelt, F. D 11/8/1932 -4. 554 .0-1. 447. 733. 9

Roosevelt, F. D 11/3/1936 2. 3 -35. 031 .1-0.4-9. 8

Roosevelt, F. D 11/5/1940 -2. 4 -11. 620. 325. 919. 8

Roosevelt, F. D 11/7/1944 -0. 336 .4-8. 15. 75. 5

Truman D 11/2/1948 -3. 818. 831. 724. 018. 4

Eisenhower R 11/4/1952 0 .4-1. 052. 631. 66. 6

Eisenhower R 11/6/1956 -0. 9 -10. 843. 412. 00. 5

Kennedy D 11/8/1960 0. 826 .9-8. 722. 816. 5

Johnson D 11/3/1964 -0. 212. 5 -10. 124. 011. 1

Nixon R 11/5/1968 0 .3-8. 54. 014. 319. 0

Nixon R 11/7/1972 -0. 1 -14. 7 -26. 537. 223. 8

Carter D 11/2/1976 -1.0-7. 26. 618. 432. 4

Reagan R 11/4/1980 1 .7-4. 921. 422. 56. 3

Reagan R 11/6/1984 -0. 932. 218. 55. 216. 8

Bush, G. H. W. R 11/8/1988 -0. 431 .5-3. 230. 57. 7

Clinton D 11/3/1992 -0. 910. 01. 337. 623. 0

Clinton D 11/5/1996 2. 633. 428. 621. 0 -9. 1

-1. 6 -11. 9 -21. 928. 712. 8

1. 18. 4

Bush, G. W. R 11/7/2000*

Bush, G. W. R 11/7/2004

*Outcome of race was officially undetermined until December 13, 2000

Average from Democratic -0. 57. 38. 121. 710. 7

1888 to 2006 Republican 0. 77. 79. 310. 316. 3

Overall 0. 27. 68. 515. 413. 8

Average from Democratic -0. 415. 78. 224. 615. 4

1948 to 2006 Republican -0. 02. 313. 022. 811. 7

Overall -0. 27. 610. 223. 613. 3

Party