46 Middle East & Africa TheEconomistOctober9th 2021
halted the work of Médecins Sans Fron
tières and the Norwegian Refugee Council,
two aid organisations.
Three factors are contributing to Ethio
pia’s growing isolation. The first is Abiy’s
capricious approach to foreign policy,
which is characterised by personal rela
tionships rather than engagement with in
stitutions. He has sidelined the foreign
ministry and closed or downsized dozens
of embassies. He has alienated foreign
leaders with a string of unkept promises,
such as those to allow aid to reach Tigray or
to eject Eritrean troops. And he has infuri
ated America by buying drones from Iran
and snubbing American envoys.
The second factor is the West’s per
ceived double standard. From 1991 to 2018,
when the tplfdominated the Ethiopian
government, America routinely turned a
blind eye to its ally’s humanrights viola
tions. Because the Ethiopian army was
helping fight jihadists in Somalia, a brutal
campaign against separatists in Ethiopia’s
own Somali region drew scant condemna
tion. “The West emboldened the tplfand
whitewashed its past sins,” argues Zelalem
Moges, an Ethiopian lawyer. More recently,
the administration of Donald Trump sided
with Egypt and Sudan in their dispute with
Ethiopia over a huge dam it is building on
the Blue Nile. “Abiy genuinely believes the
United States is trying to overthrow him,”
notes an American diplomat. “He believes
that he is this proAmerican, liberalising
market reformer that we have shunned.”
Most important is a disagreement
about the wisdom of continuing the war.
“Our demands are quite simple: end the
war and our relations are by definition bet
ter,” says a European diplomat. African of
ficials, though quieter, tend to agree. Even
Russia and China, which Abiy hopes will
plug any financial holes left by cuts in
Western aid and military assistance, have
been reticent. Both have opposed punitive
measures in the unSecurity Council. Chi
na has also criticised American sanctions.
But neither has offered Abiy much by way
of practical support.
Abiy has hinted privately that he might
be open to negotiations with the tplf. The
special envoy of the African Union (au) to
the Horn of Africa, former Nigerian Presi
dent Olusegun Obasanjo, has reportedly
been given permission to sound out the Ti
grayan leadership. But the tplf, which
considers the aubiased against it, may not
accept its mediation. The prime minister,
for his part, made no mention of talks in
his inaugural address and seems deter
mined instead to launch a new offensive.
That may force the hand of America, which
is deciding whether to suspend dutyfree
access for Ethiopian goods under the Afri
can Growth and OpportunityAct. Already
bad, relations between Ethiopia and its al
lies are set to sink further.n
Y
ellowdaisiesblossom,likepoppies
inFlanders,amongthebodiesrotting
inthefields.Oftheirformerlivesonly
glimpsesremain:a scarfsoakedinmud;
a tornfragmentofuniform;thetoeofa
plasticsandalpokingthroughthedirt.
Somehavebeenburiedunderstonesand
leaves.Othershavebeenlefttolieinthe
open,limbsravagedbydogs,torsos
blackenedandbloatedfromtherain.
Notmuchisknownforcertainabout
whathappenedinChenna,a villagein
theAmhararegionofnorthernEthiopia,
intheearlydaysofSeptember.Therewas
certainlya battle,a fearsomeone,forthe
evidenceofthatiseverywhere—inthe
ransackedhomes,theslaughteredcows,
thebulletcasingsandtheartilleryshells.
Duringa recentvisit,yourcorrespondent
couldheartheblastsofdistantartillery.
Localsburiedatleast 56 bodies:civil
ians,theysay,murderedbyrebelsfrom
Tigray.Officialsputthenumberhigher
still,atnearly200.BazeKisade,a farmer,
sayshecamehometofindtwoofhis
brothersdead,shotinthehead,their
handstiedbehindtheirbacks.Agera
Tareke,a priest,saysTigrayanfighters
brokeintohishomeandkilledhisfather
infrontofhim.TheleaderofChenna
villagecountsanentirefamilyofsix
amongthedead.
Whethertherewasa coldblooded
massacreremainsunclear.Nodoubt
civiliansdiedintheweeklongbattle
betweentheTigrayanPeople’sLiberation
Front(tplf) andgovernmentforces
supportedbyAmharaparamilitaries.
Tigrayanfightersfoughtfrompeople’s
homesandwerebombardedbythearmy
froma nearbymountainside.Itseems
likelythattherebelsshotinnocentcivil
iansastheywerepushedback.Buta
largenumberofvillagersthemselves
joinedthebattle,aswellasresidentsand
studentsfromnearbytowns.Sometook
uparmswhileotherstendedtothe
woundedorfetchedwaterforthetroops.
Theblurrylinebetweencivilianand
combatantmakesit difficulttoknowthe
trueextentofanywarcrimes.
Whatisbeyonddoubtisthatthe
advanceofTigrayanrebelsintoadjacent
regionssinceJulyhasbroughtgreat
sufferingtocivilians.InKobo,a townin
easternAmhara,dozensif nothundreds
werekilledinearlySeptember.Asin
Chenna,many—butbynomeansall—
wereprobablymilitiamenorfarmers
carryingguns.ElsewhereTigrayantroops
havereportedlyshelledvillagesand
lootedclinics.
tplfleadersjustifytheiroffensiveby
arguingtheyhavetoforceAbiyAhmed,
theprimeminister,tothenegotiating
table.Butsomespeakofrevenge.Thewar
haswroughtdevastationinTigray;towns
havebeenpillaged,civiliansslaughtered
andwomengangraped.Nowtheregion
isundersiegeandstarving(seemap).Yet
inAmhara,too,localsdescribea warof
survival.“Thetplfisgoingtodestroy
AmharaandEthiopia,”saysSolomon
Alebachew,a militialeader.“I’llbefight
inguntilmylastdropofblood.”
Ethiopia’sbrutalwar
Bodies inthe fields
C HENNA
Neithersidehascleanhandsinthebloodyconflict
Amhara Afar
Tigray
ETHIOPIA
SUDAN Mekelle
Asmara
Kobo
Chenna
LakeTana
Red
Sea
ERITREA
Foodinsecurity,Nov 202-Jan 2022*
Source:FEWSNET *Forecast
Emergency Crisis Stressed Minimal
00 km
Caught in the middle