7.6
POTENTIAL PROBLEM ANALYSIS:
DEALING WITH RISK TO A PLAN
Inspired by Ben Tregoe and Charles Kepner.The purpose of Potential Problem Analysis is to protect a plan. By plan, we mean an estab-
lished, methodical process for carrying out any project. Every plan involves some risk of
unforeseen or unexpected roadblocks and the plan can be analyzed to anticipate them. This
tool shows how to protect a plan in a systemic way. Before outlining the seven steps of
Potential Problem Analysis, we describe some terms used therein.
Probabilityrefers to the likelihood of a problem occurring. Using an airline example, the
probability of an accident occurring is near takeoff and landing rather than in flight; there-
fore, more energy and planning would go into takeoff and landing stages of a flight plan.
Seriousnessrefers to the impact of the problem if and when it does occur. An incident may
be highly probable, but not at all serious in its impact on the plan; or it could be highly
improbable, but totally disastrous if it does occur.
Preventive actionsare those actions you take to prevent problems from ever occurring. For
an airline, for example, preventive actions include safety audits, regular maintenance of
aircraft, and frequent use of pilot simulators for training.
Contingent actionsinvolve minimizing the damage if, despite effort, problems occur any-
way. Again, using the airline example, contingent actions include emergency exits, emer-
gency landing procedures, and disaster planning.The steps of Potential Problem Analysis are:
SECTION 7 TOOLS FORPROBLEMSOLVING, DECISIONMAKING, ANDQUALITY 219
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Success
Statement✔ The best way to start a Potential Problem Analysis is to have a clear statement of success.
[☛2.7 Goal Statements]
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Isolate the
Key Plan
Steps✔ Key steps are critical in those situations in which large numbers of people are involved, or there
are possible negative consequences, or you are using untried methods.
A word of caution: Potential Problem Analysis can get out of hand if you spend more time and ener-
gy than justifiable and the plan doesn’t get executed for fear of incidents!➟
List the
Potential
Problems✔ For each key step, list the potential problems that might occur; i.e., “What could go wrong at this
step?”
A group can brainstorm this list, leading to a focus on the most serious potential problems.
[☛6.9 Brainstorming]
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