The Econmist - USA (2021-10-30)

44 Europe The Economist October 30th 2021

base  effectsandboomingexports.Butin­

flation  anddevaluationareravagingthe

wages  of  ordinaryTurks.Indollarterms,

gdp per person,whichgrewsteadilyuntil

2013, is backtowhereitwasin2009.Dur­

ing Mr Erdogan’sfirstdecadeinpower(he

first  becameprimeministerin2003)mil­

lions  of  Turksworkedtheirwayintothe

middle class.Overthepastcoupleofyears,

according totheWorldBank,3.2mofthem

sank into poverty.

Mr  Erdogan’sopponentssmellblood,

calling  (in  vain)forearlyelections,inthe

knowledge thattheywouldhavea genuine

chance to unseathim.KemalKilicdaroglu,

the  head  ofthechp, recentlyurgedoffi­

cials to stopfollowing“illegalorders”from

Mr  Erdoganandwarnedthatthose who

continued todosowouldbeheldaccount­

able when theoppositiontookpower.

Since  2016, when an abortive coup

rocked  Turkey,themainoppositionhas

deferred to MrErdoganonalmosteveryna­

tional­securityissue,fromthecountry’s

purchase  ofadvancedweaponsfromRus­

sia to its armedoffensivesinSyriaandLib­

ya.  That  changedonOctober26th,when

the chp saidit wouldopposerenewingthe

government’smandatetodeploytroopsto

Syria  and  Iraq.Businesspeoplehavealso

begun  to  speakup.Turkey’slargestbusi­

ness group, tusiad, recentlycalledfora re­

turn to central­bankindependenceandthe

separation ofpowers.

Knives out?

There are evensignsthatofficialsandrul­

ing­party  backbenchersmaybepreparing

for  the  endoftheErdoganera.Ankarais

awash  with allegations that a charity

linked to oneofthepresident’ssonsplaced

hundreds  ofsympathisersingovernment

jobs. Leakeddocumentssuggestthechari­

ty was allocateda numberofpropertiesthe

governmentseizedfromtheGulencom­

munity,  the groupinvolved in the 2016

coup.  Meanwhile,SedatPeker,afugitive

mobster, continuestoregalehis2mTwit­

ter followerswithstoriesimplicatingoffi­

cials in crimesrangingfromcorruptionto

drug  trafficking.Analystsbelieveatleast

some  of  theleaksarecomingfromdisaf­

fected ak typesorbureaucratseagertodis­

tance themselvesfromthegovernment.

But it is fartooearlytowriteoffMrEr­

dogan. Turkey’sleadercontinuestotower

over  the  country’s politicsand to com­

mand the loyaltyoftensofmillionsofpeo­

ple,  the  mediaandstateinstitutions,in­

cluding  thecourtsandthepolice. More

troublingly,heandhisentouragemaybe

capable of desperatemeasurestoclingon

to  power.  MrErdogan’slatestshowdown

with the Westwillnotbehislast.Another

military  offensive inSyria, andanother

wave of repressionathome,maybearound

the corner aswell.MrErdoganwillsurely

not go quietly.n

TheEU’sborders

Wire transfer

T

heeuropeanunionhasa firmstance

onpaying forborder walls:itwon’t.

Even after Europe’s migration crisis in

2015­16,when1.4mpeoplearrived,many

fleeingSyria’scivilwar,theEuropeanCom­

missionsentHungaryawaywitha fleain

itsnationalearwhenitaskedforreim­

bursementforfencingoffitsborderwith

Serbia,oneofthemainentrypoints.

NothingintheSchengenBordersCode,

which governs border management, a

sharedresponsibilitybetweentheeuand

itsmemberstates,stopsthecommission

frompayingfor fences.Buttheview in

Brusselsisthattheyarecostlyandineffec­

tive.Theycanbeclimbed.Theydivertrath­

er than deter migrants. And they get in the

way  of  genuine  refugees  with  the  right  to

asylum.  The  eu sends  border  guards  and

pays for higher­tech solutions instead. 

But the commission is now being urged

to  change  its  mind.  This  comes  as  the

number  of  first­time  asylum­seekers  this

spring has almost doubled compared with

2020  (when  covid­19  made  moving  hard).

Meanwhile,  Belarus  is  mischievously  try­

ing to herd Iraqi asylum­seekers into Lith­

uania, Latvia and Poland, perhaps in retali­

ation  for  eusanctions  on  its  election­rig­

ging  government.  And  many  Europeans

expect a lot of Afghans to arrive soon. This

month 12 member states wrote to the com­

mission requesting changes in how the eu

tackles  border  security.  Among  other

things, they want Brussels to pay for fenc­

es. A physical barrier “serves the interest of

[the]  whole  eu,  not  just  member  states  of

first arrival”, it argues. Such things, it says,

should be “adequately funded from the eu

budget as a matter of priority”.

The  group,  which  includes  Hungary,

Latvia, Austria, Poland and Greece, was led

by Lithuania, which wants eutaxpayers to

cover  75%  of  the  €152m  ($176m)  it  will

spend  on  a  three­metre­high  fence  on  its

border with Belarus. The project is sched­

uled  for  completion  next  September.  This

summer Politico reported that both Lithua­

nia  and  Greece  had  asked  for  funding  for

their  own  barriers.  Greece  wanted  help  to

pay for a €60m extension of its fence along

its north­eastern border with Turkey. This

is  a  pre­emptive  move,  in  case  those  Af­

ghans  arrive,  and  a  “necessity”  for  border

protection, said a Greek spokesman. 

The  commission  has  not  formally  re­

sponded. But last week its president, Ursu­

la  von  der  Leyen,  seemingly  rebuffed  the

requestata summitofeu leadersinBrus­

sels.  “There  will  be  no  funding  for  barbed

wire  and  walls,”  she  reportedly  told  the

leaders.  But  some  observers  think  that

could  change  if  enough  member  states

continue to push hard. 

The  commission  is  already  taking  a

tougher  approach  to  migration.  The  eu’s

joint border force, Frontex, is getting more

money  and  people;  and  the  commission

has  also  proposed  creating  a  union­wide

deportation  co­ordinator,  though  squab­

bling over which eu countries should take

how  many  asylum­seekers  has  held  this

up.  The  eu’s  commissioner  for  home  af­

fairs,  Ylva  Johansson  of  Sweden,  has

praised  fencing  as  a  tactic  to  slow  migra­

tion.  On  a  recent  visit  to  Lithuania,  she

called the country’s fencea “good idea”. eu

commissioners have learned from the mi­

grant crisis of 2015­16 that taking in lots of

asylum­seekers  comes  with  a  political

cost,  says  Roderick  Parkes,  of  the  German

Council  on  Foreign  Relations,  a  Berlin­

based think tank. Building a wall doesn’t. 

European  countries  have  built  about

1,000km (600 miles) of border fencing over

the past 30 years, the bulk of it since 2015.

Today, more than half of all eu states have

some  physical  barrier  at  an  external  bor­

der.  As  fencing  becomes  more  normal,  it

will be harder for the commission to refuse

to  fund  it,  Mr  Parkes  says.  Member  states

will  argue  that  physical  barriers  are  now

part  of  the  routine  border  protection  that

the eu shares a responsibility to fund. And

even  if  the  eu won’t  pay  up,  some  states

have  found  ways  to  build  fences  without

springing all the costs on their own taxpay­

ers.  Lithuania,  for  example,  won’t  be  pay­

ing for its barrier alone. The Czech Repub­

lic  has  already  committed  to  send the

country €530,000 to speed up the work.n

Several eu members want handouts for

barriers to keep migrants out

Build a wall and get Brussels to pay for it