The Econmist - USA (2021-10-30)

The Economist October 30th 2021 SpecialreportStabilisingtheclimate 7

made a big dent in global energy consumption,butit hasvastlyre­
duced the cost of wind turbines and solar panels.Inmanymarkets
renewable­electricity  projects  can  now  matchorundercutthe
price of fossil­fuel infrastructure—at leastiftheirdevelopersbor­
row at the same rates as fossil­fuel developers.In 2020 theshareof
the world’s energy generated by solar panelsgrewby21%,which
points to a doubling every four years. Wind,whichnowsupplies
twice  as  much  energy  as  solar,  is  growingmoreslowly,by12%a
year.  But  that  is  still  a  six­year  doubling.The 3%penetration
achieved in the past two decades might provethebasisfor30%or
more over the next two.
The process can be speeded up further bythesimpleexpedient
of making fossil fuels more expensive. Carbonpricinghasnot,so
far, had the traction that economists wouldwishforit.Mostfos­
sil­fuel users do not pay a carbon tax; nor aretheysubjecttoa cap­
and­trade  system  of  CO 2 emission  permits.Butinone ofthe
world’s  largest  economies,  the  European
Union,  electricity  generators  and  an  in­
creasing  number  of  other  businesses  face
real costs for burning fossil fuels. Over the
first  half  of  this  year,  emitting  a  tonne  of
CO 2 under the eu’s permit scheme cost, on
average, €44 ($53).
The  more  the  world’s  generators  face
similarly  significant  carbon  prices,  the
more completely renewables will triumph
over  existing  fossil­fuel  plants  and  the
more  attractive  low­emission  approaches
to heavy industrial processes will become.
And the cleaner the grid becomes the more
helpful it will be to electrify consumer ac­
tivities which used to depend on the burn­
ing  of  fossil  fuels,  such  as  the  driving  of
cars and the heating of homes.
Carbon  dioxide  is  not  the  only  green­

housegas.Humanactivitiesalsoemitmethane(fromthenatural­

gasindustryandrubbishheaps,butalsofromlivestock),nitrous

oxide(mostlyfromagriculture)andchlorine­bearingindustrial

gases.Thattheseboosttheriseintemperatureisa problem,butis

tosomeextentmoretractable.Bigreductionsinagriculturalemis­

sionsofmethane andnitrous­oxideemissionswilltaketime

(thoughmarginalimprovementswouldcomequicklyifbeefcon­

sumptionfell).Butotherapproachestomethanereduction,in­

cludingpluggingholesinthenatural­gasinfrastructure,might

happenfaster.Slashingmethaneemissionsinhalfcould,other

thingsbeingequal,knock0.2­0.3°Cofftheworld’stemperature.

Brimstone,too

Other“short­livedclimateforcers”,astheyareknown,aremore

problematic.Sulphur­dioxideemissions,whicharemostlyasso­

ciatedwithburningcoalandheavyoils,producesmallairborne

particlesofsulphatewhichreflectsunlight

back into space, offsetting greenhouse

warming. According to the Intergovern­

mental Panel onClimate Change(ipcc)

theseparticlescoolEarthroughlyasmuch

asmethanewarmsit.Astheuseofcoalde­

clines,sowillthelevelsofsulphate,exac­

erbatingglobalwarming.

Cheaprenewablesandthewillingness

topayfortheirinstallation;theelectrifica­

tionofevermoreaspectsofdailylife; the

clearefficacyofcarbonpricing;a newseri­

ousnessaboutshort­livedclimateforcers:

theyallmake actiononclimatechange

lookeasiertodaythanitdid 12 yearsago,

when the meant­to­be­momentous Co­

penhagenclimatesummitendedindisar­

rayanddisagreement,andalsoa goodbit

easierthanit didsixyearsagoinParis.The

Falling fast

Levelised cost of electricity*, $ per MWh

Source:

BloombergNEF

*Excludessubsidies, tax-credits or curtailment

†Combined cycle gas turbine

800

600

400

200

0

200910 131211 14 21201918171615

CCGT† Coal

Large-scale batteries

Oshore wind

Onshore wind

Solar (tracking)

Solar (fixed-axis)