The Econmist - USA (2021-10-30)

TheEconomistOctober30th 2021 SpecialreportStabilisingtheclimate 21

mate”,asNaomiKlein,a writerandactivist,putsitinthesubtitle
toherbestsellingbook“ThisChangesEverything”(2014).Inthis
viewthefossil­fuelindustry’sinsistenceonputtingitsownpro­
fitsaheadoftheglobalrisksposedbyitseffluentisnotjusta brake
onsensibleclimatepolicybuta signofa systemicinabilityto
reachclimategoalsina capitalisteconomy.
Itisessentialthattheworldprovesthisthesistobewrong.Do­
ingsomeansembracingtheaspectofcapitalismwhichmostwor­
riesenvironmentalists:growth.Todevelopwhilereducingdepen­
denceonfossilfuels—theonlysortofgrowthwitha realfuture—
thepoorworldneedsnewtechnologyandnewinvestment.The
growthsuppliedbycapitalismiswhatprovidesboththesethings,
whichiswhymosteconomistsseeit ascrucialtobringingthefos­
sil­fuelagetoanend.Allthatisneededistofindwaystoensure
thatgrowthdoesnothavetobelinkedtorisingCO 2.
Theissueisnicelysummedupina formulacreditedtoYoichi
Kaya,a Japaneseenergyeconomist,whichlinksthesizeofthe
economy,thescaleofemissionsandtheamountofcarboninthe
energysystem:

Emissionsaretheproductofpopulation,gdpperhead,energy
usedperunitofgdpandcarbonemissionsfromthatenergy.Tore­
duceemissionsonemustreduceoneormoreofthosefourfactors.
Privateandgovernmentactionontheclimatehasconcentratedon
thelasttwo:carbonemissionsperunitofenergy(decarbonisa­
tion)andenergyuseperunitofgdp(efficiency).Butgiveninsuffi­
cientprogress,somesayit istimetolookatthefirsttwo.
Thehistoryofthe20thcenturyshowsthatreducingpopula­
tion,thoughstillspokenofasa long­termgoalbysomegreensand
predictedbydemographersformuchoftheworldlaterthiscentu­
ry,isnota courseofactionthatgovernmentscaneffectivelyand
decentlypursue(thoughdealingwithunmetcontraceptiveneeds
certainlyis).Thatleavesgdpperhead.Whenthisgrows,asithas
bya factoroftenworldwidesincethecarbonneedlebegantotick
upinthe19thcentury,energyefficiencyandcarbonintensity
mustimprovemerelytokeepcarbonemissionsstable.Ifgrowth
stops,thebenefitsfromincreasedenergyefficiencyandreduced
carbonintensitycangostraightintoreducingemissions.

Thedegrowthdebate
Since the Paris agreement of 2015, discussion of degrowth has be­
come an increasingly hot topic among some ecologists, heterodox
economists and other scholars. Some see it as a strategy solely for
the rich world, which they feel does not need any more affluence,
while accepting the need for continued growth in poorer places.
Others are dubious about the whole idea of sustained growth. Ei­
ther  version,  though,  has  huge  moral,  political,  and  economic
drawbacks.  
The moral problem is that, fine though it may be for individ­
uals to renounce increased consumption, it is not for them to im­
pose their choice on others. There are specific things that societies
can require people not to produce or consume, and there may be
reasons for rationing some things during emergencies and in spe­
cial  circumstances.  But  production  and  consumption  in  general
should remain matters of individual choice.
If  those  devoted  to  degrowth  could  persuade  everyone  else,
their goal might conceivably come about as a voluntary, consen­
sual moral revolution. Otherwise they would need to gain political
power and impose their aims. And that raises the problem of polit­
ical practicality. Governments can and do suppress growth in va­
rious ways. Often they do it through wrongheadedness, hapless­
ness or as the result of capture by pernicious interests. Sometimes

theydoitasexplicitpolicy—asintheausterityimposedonsome

countriesintheearly2010s.Butanovertpolicyofdeliberately

slowing,stallingorreversinglong­termgrowth,evenif presented

asbeingforthegoodoftheworld,isa highlyunpromisingplat­

formonwhichtowinelections.

Evenifitwerenotbothwrongandimpractical,enforcedde­

growthwouldstillbea badidea.Muchoftheincreaseinprosper­

ityinpoorercountriesoverthepast 20 yearshasbeendrivenby

risingdemandfromrichcountries.Removethatmotorandthe

rateatwhichtheworld’spoorareraisedoutofpovertywouldslow.

It wouldalsohobblethefightagainstclimatechange.Rapiddecar­

bonisationrequires massive investmentin renewablesevery­

where,butmostofallinemergingeconomies.Muchofthemoney

mustcomefrominvestorsinrichcountriesseekingreturns,even

ifrich­worldgovernmentscommitresourcestoo.Withouthuge

amountsofinvestment,decarbonisationwilltakelonger.

Andwithoutacceleratedinnovationitwillbeincomplete.The

currentsystemisnottheonlywaytogetfrombrightideastopro­

ductsusedona broad,evenworld­changing,scale.Butithasthe

bestrecord.Alotofinnovationsarestillneedediftheworldisto

speedupitsdecarbonisation—betterwaysofstoringenergy,of

heatinghouses,ofcoolinghouses,ofprocessingcrops,ofgrowing

crops,ofpoweringlargevehicles,ofproducingplasticsandmore.

A contracting,low­demand,low­investmenteconomyisnotlike­

lytoprovideanyofthese.

Thiscaseagainstdegrowthdoesnotnecessarilymeanbusi­

nessasusual,however.Toservethegoalofdecarbonisation,inno­

vationmustbedirectedtowardsspecificgoalswithparticular

properties—itcannotsimplyroamfreelyinsearchofideasthat

lookprofitable.Someofthispurposecancomefromfoundersand

investors.Teslaisa goodexample:a companybuiltupbyElon

Musktomakebothmoneyandelectriccars,and,byshowingthat

itcoulddoso,toestablishtheneedforothercarmakerstofollow

Share and share unlike

Cumulative CO2 emissions*, 1750-201, bn tonnes

*Notincludingemissionsembeddedintradedgoodsor

emissionsfromland-usechange Source:OurWorldinData

South Africa 21

Other 26

Brazil 15

Other 27

UnitedStates

410

Canada

33

Mexico

20

Other Australia^1

EU-2

365

Russia

114

Ukraine

30

Other 17

China

220

Japan

65

India

52

Iran 1

S.Korea 17

S.Arabia 15

Other

121

Asia

50

Europe 525

North America 470

Africa

46

Oceania

20

South

America

42

CO 2 = population!!!

gdp energy CO 2

capita gdp energy