The Cuban Revolution Today: Proposals of Changes, Scenarios, and Alternatives 35
The economy has been facing a serious crisis of liquidity in curren-
cies since 2009. An estimated calculation of income could be the fol-
lowing: US$2,500,000 billion from nickel, US$2 billion from the sale
of medical and other services, US$1 billion from tourism, US$1 bil-
lion from remittances in cash, and approximately another billion in
various articles brought by relatives or friends or sent through the mail
(this item declined with the restrictions imposed by George W. Bush
and has benefited from the measures adopted by the Obama govern-
ment), and another billion from the pharmaceutical industry and bio-
technology and from other products such as tobacco.The main
sources of liquidity for the government on a short-term basis are the
sale of professional services abroad, tourism, the TRDs, and the for-
eign currency exchange offices known as “Cadeca.”^18
The Achilles’ heel of the economic arena today is food production,
housing, and the lack of hard currency.^19 According to research con-
ducted by Cuban economists, it is probable that the Cuban economy
will decline into stagnation or recession the duration of which will
depend on the speed, depth, and efficiency of the transformations
that are implemented to stimulate productivity and income (Vidal,
2010).
In synthesis, the attempt to replace the extensive growth model
that preceded the Special Period with a new growth model based on
tourism and the export of professional services shows structural
weaknesses and signs of depletion, which have started demonstrating
major limitations in the availability of currencies, a more relative
shortage of resources for investment projects and, finally, a trend
toward a deceleration of the growth of the GDP. The government has
adopted austerity measures—the elimination of dining rooms in
workplaces, rationalization of the labor force, reduction in travel- The policy concerning foreign currency aims to achieve, through the sale of profes-
sional services, taxes, and the higher prices in the TRDs, a redistribution of these ear-
nings to finance social services for the whole population and obtain hard currency for
development. - The deficit in housing is around 1 million. The subsidized products available
through the ration card are so scarce that they do not last more than a third of a month.