58 Chapter 2
Cuba today is not a “threat” as an ally of the former USSR, as it
was in the cold war, and is not present in previous theaters of opera-
tions of the cold war in Central America and Africa.
In the multilateral arena, the resolution against the blockade that
the UN adopts each year is opposed only by the United States, Israel,
and some other irrelevant countries. The whole international commu-
nity, with these exceptions, is against the blockade.
Fidel Castro and Raúl Castro have shown their ability to achieve
political stability and consensus on the island, something that a
“Cuban” from the Cuban American National Foundation (having
proven unable to achieve unity even within the Cuban community in
the United States) would not be able to do in a Cuba with capitalism
restored after a costly invasion.
Cuba might, after the normalization of relations, turn into a factor
of stability in the region because of the importance for the island of its
new relationship of equality with the United States.
Is an unstable Cuba in a situation of civil war and endemic conflict
better for the United States than a politically stable society with a not
insignificant market?^39
Why is a Western-style democracy demanded of Cuba but not of
China or Vietnam for the lifting of the blockade and the establishment
of full diplomatic relations? Why this double standard?
The Cuban political class and leadership are prepared to accept the
logic of economic interdependence as a route to overcoming depen-
dency in this area, especially in a world in which, as the Cuban leader-
ship is aware, socialism is neither irreversible nor significantly
- "Free trade with Cuba would have significant benefits to U.S. economy" and "would
create higher productivity and standard of living to the Cuban economy as well" (Lynch,
2005: 44). Depending on possible scenarios with regard to its GDP, "Cuba's exports to
the United States would reach $4.21 billion and imports from the U.S. would be $9.47
billion by the year 2013. In the next 20 years, exports from Cuba would exceed $19
billion and the imports from the U.S. would be close to $29 billion." This relation with
Cuba would mean the creation over a 20-year period of from 315, 269 to 845, 621 jobs
in the United States.