The Economist - USA (2021-11-13)

60 Britain TheEconomistNovember13th 2021

toraspossibleoff­site,infactories,before

shippingthepartsforfinalassembly.

Rolls­Royce thinks thatshould make

constructionfaster.Itreckons thebuild

timeforansmrcouldbeshavedtothreeor

fouryears,shorteningthetimebetween

forkingoutcapitalandbeginningtoearna

return.Italsohopesthata combinationof

factorymanufactureandalargeproduc­

tionrunwillallowitsengineerstotakead­

vantageofeconomiesofscaleandlearn

howtostreamlineproduction,justasmak­

ersofstandardisedgoodsfromaircraftto

fridgesdo.Itreckonsthatthecostoflater

smrs couldfalltoaround£1.8bn.

Italllooksgoodonpaper.Rolls­Royce

says there is interest from Poland, the

Czech Republic and Turkey. Privately,

though, even some of those associated

withtheprojectconcedethathistorycoun­

sels caution. The nuclear industry has

promisedcheapreactorsmanytimesbe­

fore;sofarithasfailedtoprovidethem.

Thepriceofwindandsolarenergy,mean­

while,continuestofall.

Ministers,however,mayfeeltheyhave

littlechoicebuttohopethatthistimereal­

lywillbedifferent.Britain’snuclearplants

produced16.5%ofitselectricitylastyear.

Yettheyaremostlyoldanddecrepit:allbut

oneisduetoshutby2030.Thecountryhas

installed fleets of wind turbines, but

unusuallycalmweatherthisyearhascut

outputandforcedit torelymoreheavilyon

polluting coal and gas­fired power sta­

tions,evenasthepriceofnaturalgashas

soared.Electricitybillsarerising;carbon

emissions from electricity generation,

which had been falling for years, have

creptbackup(seechartonpreviouspage).

Nuclearenergy,despiteitsdrawbacks,

islow­carbonandmoredependablethan

thewind.Itspriceislittleaffectedbyfluc­

tuationsinthecostofuranium.Ministers,

Rolls­Royceandconsumerswillhopethat

a newtwistontheideatakesoff. n

Environmentalattitudes

Mustn’t grumble

O

neside­effectofhostinganinterna­

tional  climate  conference  is  an  out­

break  of  navel­gazing.  As  the  unextrava­

ganza in Glasgow nears its end, many opin­

ion polls and studies have appeared, which

provide  a  superbly  detailed  view  of  how

Britons  think  about  climate  change.  They

reveal a country committed to tackling glo­

bal  warming,  but  unfortunately  drawn  to

the priciest ways of doing it. 

Perhaps sensing that they ought to set a

good  example  for  their  international

guests,  Britons  have  swung  firmly  behind

the  view  that  anthropogenic  climate

change is both real and alarming. One poll­

ster, Ipsos mori, finds that 81% believe that

an  environmental  disaster  looms  unless

habits  change  quickly.  Old  people’s  opin­

ions have changed most dramatically. A se­

ries  of  polls  for  the  Department  for  Busi­

ness, Energy and Industrial Strategy reveal

that  80%  of  over­64s  are  now  concerned

about climate change, up from 56% in 2012. 

Britons have a lot on their minds these

days, what with Brexit, covid­19 and infla­

tion. That does not seem to matter. Where­

as  the  financial  crisis  of  2007­08  was  fol­

lowed by a years­long recession in concern

about  climate  change,  the  coronavirus

pandemic suppressed interest only briefly

(see chart). Lorraine Whitmarsh of the Uni­

versity of Bath suggested a decade ago that

people  have  a  “finite  pool  of  worry”  and

thateconomicconcernshaddisplaceden­

vironmentalones.Shenowthinksthatcli­

matechangehasbecomeacoreconcern

thatcannotbepushedoutofthepool.

Whattodoaboutit,though?Unsurpris­

ingly,Britonsarekeenonclimatemitiga­

tionpoliciesintheabstractandlesskeen

whentheyarepresentedwiththeprobable

costsofsuchpolicies.Butif theymustpay,

theywouldratherdoso,bya slightmargin,

throughgeneraltaxation.Onward,a think­

tank,reportedonNovember8ththat50%

ofpeoplewerepreparedtopayhighertaxes

in order to reduce carbon emissions,

whereas46%wouldpayhigherpricesfor

goods. Low­earners were especially op­

posedtohigherprices.

Politicians amplify this view. Robert

Halfon,theConservativempforHarlow,

hasfora decadecampaignedsuccessfully

againstanyriseinfuelduty.Thatprobably

contributedto thefact thatgreenhouse­

gasemissionsfromtransportfellbyjust

2%between 2010 and2019,evenasemis­

sionsfromallsourcesdroppedby26%.Mr

Halfonisnota climate­changedenier(“I

believeinallofit,”hesays).Andhesup­

ports subsidiesfor electric vehicles. He

merely opposes attempts to reduce de­

mandbyraisingprices.

Britons are keener still on banning

things.Anotherpoll,inAugust,foundthat

peoplewouldpreferpoliciesthatrestrict

thenumberofflightstheycantakeandthe

quantityofmeattheycaneattopolicies

thatincreasethepriceofflyingandthe

priceofmeat.SirJohnCurtice,a psepholo­

gistattheUniversityofStrathclyde,and

othersfoundthat44%supportabanon

powerfulvacuumcleaners.Theproportion

roseto64%followinganonlinediscus­

sionoftheissue.

Economists usually favour market­

basedinterventionssuchascarbontaxes,

anddisdainmeasuressuchaselectric­car

subsidies because of their inefficiency

(someofthemoneygoestopeoplewho

wouldhaveboughtelectriccarsanyway).

ButordinaryBritonsplainlydisagree.Will

TannerofOnwardsuggeststhatisbecause

they believe the cost oftackling global

warmingshouldbebornebysocietyasa

whole,andgeneraltaxationstrikesthem

asagoodwayofachievingthat.Blanket

bansprobablystrikea nationinordinately

fondofqueuingasequitable,too.

Thisenthusiasmforinefficientwaysof

reducing greenhouse­gas emissions im­

pliesthatBritainwillendupspendingfar

morethanitneedsto.Thatisfrustrating.

ButthepollsalsosuggestthatBritonsare

inonesenseaheadoftheirleaders.Adap­

tationtoclimatechangehasforyearsbeen

thepoorrelationofmitigation.Itisdis­

cussedlessandoftenthoughtofassome­

thingthat poorer countries need to do.

Speaking at a session onadaptation in

Glasgow on November 8th, Anne­Marie

Trevelyan,Britain’stradesecretary,touted

afundtoassistAsiancountriesbutsaid

nothingaboutherown.

Peopleseemtohavenoticedthis,and

are nothappy. In late 2020 Ipsos mori

polled 30 richandmiddle­incomecoun­

triesfortheenergyfirmedf. Itfoundthat

just30%ofBritonsbelievethattheirgov­

ernmenthastakenmeasurestoreducethe

effectsofclimatechangeathome,suchas

building dams—the second­lowest pro­

portionofanycountryafterItaly.Politi­

ciansmightcallthatjudgmentunfair.It

wouldbebetterif theytriedtochangepeo­

ple’smindsthroughtheiractions.n

Britons are keen on greenery—especiallythewastefulkind

Financial slump, pandemic pause

Britain, % citing pollution, the environment or

climate change as a top issue facing the country

Source:IpsosMORI

30

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20

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First daily covid-1 briefing

from Boris Johnson

Beginning of Northern

Rock’s bank run