brand, while not hurting seasonal consumption. Other soft-drink manufac-
turers started to do the same, with the net result that a more balanced con-
sumption pattern occurred. The previous concentration of advertising had
created a self-fulfilling prophecy.Forrester has proposed using his “industrial dynamics” methodology to test cycli-
cal advertising policies.^30 He believes that advertising has a delayed impact on con-
sumer awareness; awareness has a delayed impact on factory sales; and factory sales
have a delayed impact on advertising expenditures. These time-lag relationships can
be studied and formulated mathematically into a computer-simulation model. The
model can simulate alternative timing strategies to assess varying impacts on com-
pany sales, costs, and profits. Rao and Miller also developed a lag (delay) model to
relate a brand’s share to advertising and promotional expenditures on a market-by-
market basis. They tested their model successfully with 5 Lever brands in 15 districts,
relating market share to dollars spent on TV, print, price-off, and trade promotions.^31
Kuehn developed a model to explore how advertising should be timed for fre-
quently purchased, highly seasonal, low-cost grocery products.^32 He showed that the
appropriate timing pattern depends on the degree of advertising carryover and the
amount of habitual behavior in customer brand choice. Carryoverrefers to the rate at
which the effect of an advertising expenditure wears out with the passage of time. A
carryover of 0.75 per month means that the current effect of a past advertising ex-
penditure is 75 percent of its level in the previous month. Habitual behaviorindicates
how much brand holdover occurs independent of the level of advertising. High ha-
bitual purchasing, say 0.90, means that 90 percent of the buyers repeat their brand
choice in the next period.
Kuehn found that when there is no advertising carryover or habitual purchasing,
the decision maker is justified in using a percentage-of-sales rule to budget advertis-
ing. The optimal timing pattern for advertising expenditures coincides with the ex-
pected seasonal pattern of industry sales. But if there is advertising carryover or
habitual purchasing, it would be better to time advertising to lead sales. Advertising
expenditures should peak before sales peak. Lead time should be greater, the higher
the carryover. Furthermore, the advertising expenditures should be steadier, the greater
the habitual purchasing.
The microscheduling problem calls for allocating advertising expenditures within
a short period to obtain maximum impact.
Suppose the firm decides to buy 30 radio spots in the month of September. Fig-
ure 5-12 shows several possible patterns. The left side shows that advertising messages
for the month can be concentrated (“burst” advertising), dispersed continuously
throughout the month, or dispersed intermittently. The top side shows that the ad-
vertising messages can be beamed with a level, rising, falling, or alternating frequency.
The most effective pattern depends upon the communication objectives in rela-
tion to the nature of the product, target customers, distribution channels, and other
marketing factors. Consider the following cases:A retailer wants to announce a preseason sale of ski equipment. She thinks
the target buyers need to hear the message only once or twice. Her objective
is to maximize reach, not frequency. She decides to concentrate the messages
on sale days at a level rate but to vary the time of day to avoid the same au-
diences. She uses pattern 1.
A muffler manufacturer-distributor wants to keep his name before the
public. Yet he does not want his advertising to be too continuous because
only 3 to 5 percent of the cars on the road need a new muffler at any given
time. He chooses intermittent advertising. Furthermore, he recognizes that
Fridays are paydays, so he sponsors more messages on Friday. He uses pat-
tern 12.The timing pattern should consider three factors. Buyer turnoverexpresses the rate
at which new buyers enter the market; the higher this rate, the more continuous the
advertising should be. Purchase frequencyis the number of times during the period that
the average buyer buys the product; the higher the purchase frequency, the more con-part five
Managing and
Delivering Marketing(^592) Programs