The Economist - UK (2021-11-20)

30 Britain TheEconomistNovember20th 2021

Theeconomy

All change

W

onksspentmonthsworriedabout

the thousands of British workers

senthomeduringthepandemic,whothen

lingered on the government’s furlough

scheme.Were they simplybeingstrung

alongbyemployers,tobediscardedonceit

endedonSeptember30th?OnNovember

16th the first batchof post­furlough la­

bour­marketdataofferedreassurance.The

numberofpayrolledemployees(thatis,

excluding the self­employed) grew by

0.6%inOctobercomparedwiththeprevi­

ousmonth.Theeconomywillneedthat

dynamismasitadjuststoBrexit,covid­19,

climatechange—andmorebesides.

Abigemploymentreshuffleisclearly

underwayinBritain,whichisgoodnews

forgrowthifpeoplemoveintorolesthey

arebettersuitedfor.Theshareofworkers

switchingjobsrosetoa recordhighof3.2%

inthethirdquarteroftheyear(seechart).

Encouragingly,thiswasmostlydrivenby

people resigning rather than being dis­

missed.FabriceMontagnéandAbbasKhan

ofBarclays,a bank,notethatthismobility

wasbroad­based,havingnowspreadbe­

yondpeoplewithhighlyskilledjobs.

Othermeasuresofdynamismarelook­

ingup,too.JointresearchfromtheCentre

forEconomicPerformanceandtheResolu­

tion Foundation, two think­tanks, ana­

lysestheDecisionMakerPanel,a surveyof

Britishcompanies.Itsuggeststhatfinan­

cial officers expect the reallocation of

workersfromshrinkingtogrowingcom­

panies(ameasureofdynamism)tospeed

upinthecomingyear.A differentbusiness

surveyfoundthatby Julythisyearover

60%ofcompanieshadengagedinproduct

innovationandnearly70%hadadopted

Thewheelsaregreased.Butwhatabout

theengine?

Revolving door

Britain, job-to-job moves*, % of workforce

Source: Labour Force Survey *Aged 16-69

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

052001 10 15 21

Asianswingvoters

Blue light

“I

have been here many times,” de­

clared Boris Johnson as he and Priti Pa­

tel,  the  home  secretary,  toured  a  Hindu

temple in north London (pictured) on No­

vember 7th to mark Diwali. And indeed so:

he had last dropped in days before the elec­

tion  of  2019.  His  predecessors,  Theresa

May and David Cameron, visited too.

Such trips reflect not only the goodwill

that  leaders  extend  to  many  faith  groups,

but  also  the  growing  potential  for  the  To­

ries to scoop up support from British­Indi­

an  voters.  The  Labour  Party  still  enjoys  a

ten­percentage­point  lead  over  them

among British Indians, who also prefer Sir

Keir  Starmer,  Labour’s  leader,  to  Mr  John­

son. But Labour’s historical advantage has

eroded, while support for the Tories has re­

mained  stable.  The  result,  according  to  a

study  published  on  November  18th  by  the

Carnegie  Endowment  for  International

Peace  and  Johns  Hopkins  School  of  Ad­

vanced International Studies, is a growing

pool of British Indians who are undecided

or aligned to third parties. 

These swing voters are in theory ripe for

wooing.  But  they  are  not  a  homogeneous

bloc. Moreover, much of the received wis­

dom  in  Westminster  about  what  makes

them tick is based in stereotypes.

The Indian diaspora fragments accord­

ing to age and class. Younger British Indi­

ans lean most heavily to Labour, as do the

poorer and those without degrees. The old­

er, wealthier and better­educated are more

inclined to vote Tory. There is also a cohort

effect, with an earlier generation of immi­

grants  and  their  children  more  likely  to

vote  Labour,  and  more  recent  arrivals  to

vote Tory. That might reflect differences in

political attitudes between those who grew

up  under  the  social­democratic  govern­

ment  of  Jawaharlal  Nehru,  India’s  first

prime minister, and those conditioned by

Narendra  Modi’s  right­wing  administra­

tion, speculates Devesh Kapur, a co­author

of  the  study.  But  religion  is  the  most  im­

portant fissure. Support for the Tories is far

higher among Hindus and Christians than

among Muslims or Sikhs. 

One common misconception is that the

Tories’  appeal  relies  on  recruiting  more

mps  of  Indian  descent,  such  as  Ms  Patel

and  Rishi  Sunak,  the  chancellor.  Such  di­

versity is good in itself. Yet the study found

“large levels of indifference” among British

Indians  to  the  ethnic  composition  of  the

Cabinet,  with  only  around  a  quarter  of

themsayingitmade  them  look  more  fa­

vourably on the Tories. 

Another  misconception  is  that  foreign

policy  is  decisive.  Many  Tory  mps  em­

braced the argument that Brexit would al­

low Britain to prioritise its former imperial

assets over the European continent. Ms Pa­

tel once promised a post­Brexit migration

regime to “save our curry houses”. Yet Brex­

it  has  limited  appeal  for  British  Indians,

with two­thirds of those who voted now re­

porting that they opposed the divorce.

Mr  Johnson  is  seeking  a  trade  agree­

ment with India. But if there are votes for

the Tories among the Indian diaspora, they

will not be found by cosying up to Mr Mo­

di’s  government,  which  is  approved  of  by

only one in five respondents. Those British

Indians  who  did  support  Brexit  were  far

more  likely  to  cite  restoring  Britain’s  law­

making  powers  than  striking  a  trade  deal

with New Delhi. On the whole, British Indi­

ans seem not to dwell much on which poli­

ticians would best serve Anglo­Indian rela­

tions:  31%  say  there  is  no  difference  be­

tween the parties and another 31% say they

don’t know. 

The  final  myth  is  that  British­Indian

values are an unusually good fit for the To­

ries,  representing  hard  work,  enterprise

and family. Many British Indians do value

these  things,  as  do  their  neighbours.  Yet

asked to place themselves on a seven­point

ideological scale, ranging from “extremely

liberal”  to  “extremely  conservative”,  Brit­

ish Indians skew to the liberal end. 

What does move their votes? The econ­

omy, health care and climate change were

respondents’  top  priorities—the  very

things  that  other  polls  suggest  preoccupy

the  rest  of  Britain.  It  is  no  surprise  that

bread­and­butter issues come first among

immigrant  communities,  says  Mr  Kapur,

since  people  move  to  improve  their  daily

lives. Cultural identity supposedly matters

increasingly in politics.Butsometimes it’s

best to stick to the basics.n

Conservatives are seeking to win over

Britons of Indian origin

Temple and state