The Economist - UK (2021-11-20)

TheEconomistNovember20th 2021 37

Europe

France

Aux larmes, citoyens!

T

unein to any French prime­time talk
show this autumn and discussion rages
over  the  country’s  wretched  decline.
France  is  losing  its  factories  and  jobs,
squeezing  incomes  and  small  businesses,
destroying  its  landscapes  and  language,
neglecting its borders and squandering its
global stature. Its people are fractious and
divided, if not on the verge of a civil war, as
a  public  letter  from  retired  army  officers
suggested  earlier  this  year.  At  the  second
presidential primary debate for the centre­
right  Republicans  party,  on  November
14th,  the  five  candidates  competed  with
each  other  to  chronicle  French  disaster.
Listen to the hard right and it is “the death
of France as we know it”.
The  anxiety  is  widespread.  In  a  recent
poll 75% agreed that France is “in decline”.
When  asked  to  sum  up  their  mood  in  an­
other  survey,  the  French  favoured  three
words: uncertainty, worry and fatigue. 
Like others, the French have some good
reasons  for  apprehension.  Lockdowns
have  been  wearing.  Rising  gas  and  petrol
prices, supply­chain delays, a new wave of
covid­19 cases and restrictions: all are gen­
uine  causes  of  uncertainty.  Moreover,  the

Frenchholda presidentialelectioninApril

andthecampaignisalreadydivisive.The

line­upislikelytofeaturenotjustonebut

twostrongcandidatesfromthehardright:

MarineLePenoftheNationalRally(for­

merlytheNationalFront),andEricZem­

mour,a reactionaryformertvpundit.A so­

bering47%oftheFrenchtolda pollthey

willvoteinthefirstroundfora candidate

fromoneorotherpoliticalextreme.Some

60%saytheyhavenoconfidenceinPresi­

dentEmmanuelMacron.

Yetthereisaparadoxattheheartof

France’scurrentmalaise:thecountryisdo­

ingfairlywell,andinsomerespectsbetter

thanitsneighbours.Covidcasesarerising

againinFrance,butnothinglikeasfastas

inGermany.InJulyMrMacronintroduced

covid passes; France nowhas a greater

shareoffullyvaccinatedpeoplethanGer­

manyorBritain.LikemostofEurope,the

Frencheconomyisenjoyinga bounceafter

a deepdropingdplastyearandisexpected

toexpandby6%thisyear.Third­quarter

growth,of3% onthepreviousone,was

particularlystrong,andhigherthaninGer­

many,ItalyandSpain.Frenchgdpisnow

backatitspre­pandemiclevel(seechart).

France’sunemploymentrate,at7.6%,

hasfallenbelowitspre­pandemiclevel.

Thisisnotprimarilythankstogovernment

wage­supportschemes,generousthough

theywereattheheightofthepandemic.In

Septemberthenumberofworkersonsuch

schemesdroppedto520,000,downfrom

8.4minApril2020.“Weareseeingnetem­

ploymentcreationinFranceinsectorslike

manufacturingthatwehaven’tseenfora

while,”saysLudovicSubran,chiefecono­

mistatAllianz,aninsurer.Firmsreport

difficultiesrecruiting;salariesareexpect­

edtorise.Underthegovernment’s“Made

inFrance”strategy,newfactories—making

batteriesinnorthernFranceandinsula­

tionpanelsinthesouth­west—areinthe

works.Thecac 40 stockmarketindexisat

a recordhigh.

SowhyaretheFrenchsoconvincedthat

P ARIS

The country is doing quite well, but doesn’tseeit

→Alsointhissection

38 Belarus,PolandandtheEU

38 Presidentv presidentinGeorgia

39 Germany’snukes

40 TurkishdesignsonNorthCyprus

41 Charlemagne:Europe’slast

communists

Why so blue?

GDP, Q4 2019=100

Source:HaverAnalytics

105

100

95

90

85

80

75

2019 20 21

QQ3Q2Q1Q Q3Q2Q1

United States

Germany

France

Britain

Spain

Italy