The Economist - UK (2021-11-20)

40 Europe The Economist November 20th 2021

porterssaythisturnsthescrewsonnuc­

learpowerswhohavedonelittletomeet

theirdisarmamentobligationsunderthe

Non­ProliferationTreaty(npt)of 1970 .Op­

ponentssayitweakensthenpt, under­

minesnato’sdeterrentandhelpsadver­

sarieslikeRussiaandChinawhofaceno

pressurefromcivilsocietytosignup.

Thep3,individuallyandtogether,have

lobbiedGermany’sgovernmentandthein­

comingcoalitiononbothissues.JoeBi­

den’sandEmmanuelMacron’sjointcall

lastmonth forallies to “continueclose

consultationsonnuclearandarms­con­

trolmatters”appearedtobeaimedsquare­

lyatGermany.OlafScholz,thespd’staci­

turn chancellor­presumptive, has also

beenpressedbuthasgivenlittleaway.“We

havenoideawhathethinks,”saysoneanx­

iousp3 diplomat.Hisparty’sleftisstrong­

ly,andvocally,opposedtonuclearsharing.

Fewexpectthetraffic­lightcoalitionei­

thertoendnuclearsharingunilaterallyor

tojointhetpnwoutright.Morelikelyisa

pledgetostayinnuclearsharingwithouta

clearproposalonhowtoimplementit,de­

spitetheTornadoissue.A nervousgovern­

ment,saysClaudiaMajorattheGermanIn­

stituteforInternationalandSecurityAf­

fairs, maysimplydropoutofthearrange­

ment by kicking thecan foras long as

possibleuntiltheroadrunsout.

Thetpnwistheallies’biggerworry.De­

spite diplomats’ entreaties, Mr Scholz’s

governmentisexpectedtosayitwillat­

tendthetreaty’sfirstmeetinginViennain

March,albeitnotasa signatory.(Norway,

anothernatomember,willdothesame.)

Eventhat,reckonthep3,willdamagena-

to’scohesion.Yetitmaybethebestthat

canbeexpectedfroma countrydestinedto

veerendlesslybetweenAmerica’snuclear

protectionandthedeepatomicqueasiness

ofitsvoters.n

Cyprus

Permanent partition?

A

postolis, a retired Greek­Cypriot

dentist aged 78, tours his former clinic

in Varosha, now a derelict shell of a build­

ing, for the first time in nearly half a centu­

ry.  His  friend  Despo  wipes  away  tears  in

front of her grandfather’s old shop, where

she  would  park  her  bike  after  school.  Va­

rosha  was  once  home  to  some  39,000

Greek­Cypriots  and  swarms  of  tourists.

Elizabeth  Taylor  and  Richard  Burton

strolled  on  its  beaches.  Four  young

Swedes,  later  known  as  abba,  gave  one  of

their  first  concerts  here.  Now  it  is  a  ghost

town, overgrown by bushes and trees. Op­

posite  Apostolis’s  clinic,  painted  over  the

façade  of  what  was  once  a  Greek  high

school, are a pair of flags, one Turkish, the

other belonging to the Turkish Republic of

North  Cyprus  (trnc),  set  up  after  the  is­

land was split by a Turkish invasion in 1974

into Greek and Turkish portions. 

Fenced off since the invasion, when its

Greek­Cypriot residents fled the advancing

Turkish  troops,  Varosha  was  partially  re­

opened  earlier  this  year.  Turkey’s  presi­

dent,  Recep  Tayyip  Erdogan,  ordered  the

army  to  hand  the  town  over  to  the  trnc.

This  has  allowed  visits  by  Greek­Cypriots

living in the southern part of the island, in

the Republic of Cyprus, which the outside

world  considers  the  legitimate  govern­

ment of the whole place. But it also bolsters

the trnc, which no country but Turkey re­

cognises, and paves the way for the devel­

opmentofpropertystill  claimed  by  dis­

placed Greeks. That, in turn, further com­

plicates  the  Herculean  task  of  reuniting

the island. That was the point: Mr Erdogan

and  Ersin  Tatar,  the  Turkish­Cypriot  lead­

er, have insisted for the past year that a un­

ited  Cyprus  is  no  longer  possible.  In  New

York in September Mr Tatar and Nicos Ana­

stasiades, president of the Republic of Cy­

prus, seemed to agree that they had noth­

ing to discuss.

Northern  Cyprus,  home  to  450,000

people,  has  never  stood  on  its  own  feet.

Turkey  stations  tens  of  thousands  of  sol­

diers in the enclave, props up its economy,

and  is  the  main  conduit  for  its  foreign

trade. Though Turkey has always meddled

in the north’s affairs, it has never done so

as much as now. “Ankara treats us like one

of its districts,” says Ozdil Nami, a former

trnc foreign  minister.  A  new  low  came

last  year,  when  officials  and  goons  dis­

patched  by  Turkey  endorsed  Mr  Tatar,  an

Erdogan  loyalist,  ahead  of  presidential

elections  and  threatened  his  opponents,

including Mustafa Akinci, the incumbent.

Mr  Tatar  won  the  vote  by  a  sliver.  “Those

people”, he says at his residence, referring

to  the  politicians  and  journalists  who  ac­

cused  Turkey  of  interfering  in  the  elec­

tions, “are traitors.”

Echoing  Mr  Erdogan,  Mr  Tatar  says  he

has  no  faith  in  a  proposed  federal  model,

which would bring north and south under

one roof, and that the only way forward is

to keep the island divided. Yet analysts and

diplomats  say  a  two­state  solution  is  a

pipedream. Not even Turkey’s closest allies

would  want  to  jeopardise  relations  with

the eu, of which Cyprus is a member, by re­

cognising the north.

The risk is that a botched campaign for

sovereignty would put Northern Cyprus on

a slippery slope to full annexation by Tur­

key. That is not an outcome Turkish­Cypri­

ots  want.  The  vast  majority  of  them  wel­

comed the Turkish invasion in 1974, which

foiled an attempt by a Greek junta to unite

the  island  with  Greece.  They  feel  close  to

Turkey. But they also have a separate iden­

tity. Many are alarmed by Turkey’s authori­

tarian  turn.  Settlers  from  Turkey,  who  be­

gan arriving after the invasion and are now

about a third of the north’s population, are

a lot keener on Mr Erdogan. 

Greek­Cypriots are also alarmed. “If we

don’t find a solution, we'll end up having a

border with Turkey, which for us is a worst­

case  scenario,"  says  a  senior  Cypriot  offi­

cial.  But  they  also  have  themselves  to

blame for the stalemate. It was Mr Anasta­

siades  and  his  team  who  reportedly  got

cold feet during the most recent reunifica­

tion talks, in 2017. And it was Greek­Cypriot

voters who rejected a settlement in a refer­

endum  back  in  2004,  on  the  eve  of  the

country’s accession to the eu. 

There  is  room  for  hope.  A  big  offshore

energy find could breathe new life into the

talks, though it could also trigger a stand­

off between Turkey, Cyprus, Greece and the

eu. Turkey’s push for a two­state solution

could  be  a  ploy  intended  to  rattle  the

Greek­Cypriots.  But  facts  on  the  ground

will  be  hard  to  undo.  “We  might  have

reached a point where it’s no longer possi­

ble to put the island back together again,”

says Fiona Mullen of Sapienta Economics,

a  consultancy  in  Nicosia,  the  capital.“Va­

rosha may be the final nail in the coffin.”n

V AROSHA

Hopes fade for a solution to Europe’s longest frozen conflict

The winner takes it all