Lecture 39: The Medieval Malthusian Cycle, 500–1350

The Medieval Malthusian Cycle, 500–1350....................................

LECTURE

As in all Malthusian cycles, growth began with innovations that

stimulated population growth. New technologies included improved

strains of rice in China and improved plows and yokes in Europe.

W

hen did the Modern Revolution really begin? The next two

lectures tackle this question using the ideas sketched out in

the previous lecture. They will survey world history over the

last 1,500 years through two “Malthusian cycles” to see if we can detect

elements of modernity falling into place. This lecture describes the medieval

Malthusian cycle, which lasted from about 500 C.E. to about 1350 C.E.—

from the decline of the Roman and Han empires to the time of the Black

Death. We will focus on Afro-Eurasia, the largest and most signi¿ cant of the

four world zones and the region that drove change in the early stages of the

Modern Revolution.

We will focus on the central problem of accelerating innovation.

Consequently, we will keep our eyes on three crucial drivers of innovation:

commercialization, the spread of capitalism, and a rapid expansion in the

extent of exchange networks. Can we detect any evidence of an increase

in the importance of these drivers of innovation? Did commercialization

raise productivity by encouraging specialization and innovation? Did

entrepreneurial activity and wage earning (two key features of capitalism)

become more important, and if so, did they accelerate innovation? Did

exchange networks expand, and if so, did they stimulate commercial activity

and information exchanges?

Second, we will look for signs of a shift in wealth and power to a new hub

region, around the Atlantic. Can we detect the beginnings of this shift?

Third, we must note one more crucial factor: “accumulation.” During the

4,000 years of the later Agrarian era, despite many À uctuations, populations

increased, markets expanded, and new technologies emerged in much of the

world. Without this slow accumulation of skills and resources, the Modern

Revolution could not possibly have occurred.