Annex A – Project methodologyFigure A.5 – Content of block disruptorsFigure A.6 – Content of block possibilities/risksInfluence factors
There were 35 influencing factors identified and these are listed in Table A.1. The
criteria for being selected as influencing factors were their relevance to (military) strategic
implications and influence on the strategic context: social, technological, political and
economic aspects.
Effect- Increased abilities
- Physical
- Cognitive
- Emotional
- Sensory
Social
fragmentationEffect- Healthier population
Side effects- Injuries
- Long-term effects
Effect- New abilities
Covert
developmentBlack human
augmentation- Black market
- Biohacking
AcceptanceAccountability- International
acceptance
Possibilities/risksCan be found on all levels:
state, organisation, social, group, individualEffect- Longer life Sustainability
- Environmental
effects - Climate
- Environmental
Integrity- Data ownership
Black elephants- Injuries
- Long-term effects
Black swans- Injuries
- Long-term effects
Black jellyfish- Injuries
- Long-term effects
Black elephant is a
metaphor that
describes events that
are forecasted to have
a high impact, but for
various reasons
they are unaddressed.Black swan is a
metaphor that describes
events with high impact
that are difficult to
predict. The events are
considered highly
unlikely or improbable.Black jellyfish is a
metaphor that describes
insignificant things that
may escalate into high
impact events through
the phenomenon of
positive feedback.Disruptors