Annex A – Project methodology
Figure A.5 – Content of block disruptors
Figure A.6 – Content of block possibilities/risks
Influence factors
There were 35 influencing factors identified and these are listed in Table A.1. The
criteria for being selected as influencing factors were their relevance to (military) strategic
implications and influence on the strategic context: social, technological, political and
economic aspects.
Effect
- Increased abilities
- Physical
- Cognitive
- Emotional
- Sensory
Social
fragmentation
Effect
- Healthier population
Side effects
- Injuries
- Long-term effects
Effect
- New abilities
Covert
development
Black human
augmentation
- Black market
- Biohacking
Acceptance
Accountability
- International
acceptance
Possibilities/risks
Can be found on all levels:
state, organisation, social, group, individual
Effect
- Longer life Sustainability
- Environmental
effects - Climate
- Environmental
Integrity
- Data ownership
Black elephants
- Injuries
- Long-term effects
Black swans
- Injuries
- Long-term effects
Black jellyfish
- Injuries
- Long-term effects
Black elephant is a
metaphor that
describes events that
are forecasted to have
a high impact, but for
various reasons
they are unaddressed.
Black swan is a
metaphor that describes
events with high impact
that are difficult to
predict. The events are
considered highly
unlikely or improbable.
Black jellyfish is a
metaphor that describes
insignificant things that
may escalate into high
impact events through
the phenomenon of
positive feedback.
Disruptors